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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71558)	5/5/2000 7:52:00 PM
From: phatbstrd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Haim, < Productivity growth at 3% or 5% is a myth as most labor intensive tasks are exported and then the products imported. So your so called productivity gains are exchanged with huge trade deficits ......... which are unsustainable and will hurt the US in the long term.> Are you saying that the guy who cooked my breakfast, the man who just layed more concrete on my driveway or the man building an additional awning for a balcony are all participating in 'labor intensive tasks' to be exported?? What about the technological inventions that have made them more productive ie., the microwaves and toasters ,cement mixers and paving levelers, one man scafolding and cordless drills??????? These might even be considered 'old world tech' and I haven't gotten into today's rapidly evolving world. Are you saying that all the research I do thru the internet is not laborious? Or is it exported somehow and I will pay some future premium? I give you only a small set of simple examples so we can all understand. You nor I really know what it is like to manage trillions of $'s. I remember in college the old school economists said we would be in dire straits should unemployment go below 5%... OOOps, there goes that theory as well! We've been under 5% for how long now?? I think because of the internet and technological advances we need to tweak how we assess the economy, it is not static, but an ever evolving, living thing! Do you think the word trillion was even used prior to the advent of the printing press??? I doubt it! So maybe inflation has always been there, what a concept! But your issue of productivity is absurd, I do more in a day than a person around the turn of the century did in a week and probably a month for someone at the time of Columbus. It would serve you well to read history thru clean lenses, looking specifically at the eras containing technological advances. They include, but not limited to...The printing press, the telegraph, the 'on-shore-off-shore radio', the television, the microchip and its offspring the internet. Look back and see what happened to the societies involved....communication and increased enlightenment which resulted in wealth, health and prosperity! Oh no, not that!!! and productivity was there all the time! Yes, cycles come and go just like spring and fall but this is the 2nd inning of a 9 inning game which might go into extra innings if not derailed! Stand back and look at the big picture!!! Enough of my $5 education and school of hard knocks. P

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71558)	5/5/2000 8:31:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Haim, you make some good points, but incomplete for sure housing is stable for rent, but inflated for ultra-high end energy is temporarily on the rise, but down 10-12% since March healthcare is pretty steady from my view PC costs are going down 20% per year or more telephony generally is going down 15-20% per year (I just signed up for Sprint cellphone: $75/1000 min, a reduction in cost of 25% from previous plan) computer costs are going down per CPUcycle every year storage costs are going down per GByte every year pro sports & theatre prices are rising steadily for sure building lumber is going down in price business cardboard product is going down in price my food costs seem very stable, esp for staples bananas, corn, chicken, yogurt, bread, milk seem ok to me milk might have risen more than I expected I think productivity is pathetically understated give me a break, check out this definition: PRODUCTIVITY = total goods & services /// total hours worked (that is the flimsiest definition in quantitative history) the internet B2B and other functions cannot be computed yet they have a revolutionary influence on change e.g. examine last qtr report by General Motors (they estimated $1.3B in savings from internet supply chain) our strong technology and pursuit of revolutionary development will keep this economy going not Europe's socialism tenacity our higher interest rates will TORPEDO Europe !!! I disagree respectfully on Kudlow his argument on Fed draining Money Supply is compelling he chooses to wait and see the effects on the economy from the last five rate hikes we are only now beginning to see the effects the Y2K effect delayed their arrival answer me this: WHY ISNT GOLD HIGHER NOW ??? / Jim Willie

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71558)	5/5/2000 9:12:00 PM
From: r.edwards	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Asset values rise because of scarcity,... given a constant, or rising demand. Productivity alleviates scarcity in various goods or services by allowing more output to satisfy the increased wealth effect generated spending demand. Therefore, the only truly inflationary assets are those which will continue to have an ongoing demand with a constant marginal level of increase in scarcity. i.e.( gas/oil),(more food can be grown, lumber produced etc...) The fed is not focusing on true demand vs scarcity scenarios, but is instead focusing on slowing a robust increasingly productive economy and the well being it generates. It has done this by raising the Price of money. Greenspan will not raise too much because the foreign C. mkts will not tolerate the capital outflow to the US. Capital is abundant both in equity and debt forms, making the Feds actions very elastic when the various world wide sources of capital are considered. We the stock owners /sellers may sit on our hands, or we may buy, I think it is very interesting.