To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71569 ) 5/6/2000 9:36:00 AM From: Jim Willie CB Respond to of 152472
I hear you loud & clear, Haim, but NYC is not Main Street BigApple is a pressure point within the economy to be sure housing in the greater Boston area has also appreciated steadily, but not 100% in six years... my own modest house has risen in value 30-35% in three plus years, hardly out of control... I dont think we are seeing anything like the real estate bubble of 1987 I recall a gallon of skimmilk costing $2.20 just a couple years ago... now it goes for $2.90-3.00 depending on store... this was referred to in my last post gold is a real strange bird... I doubt the USA induced any independent European Central Bank into selling portions of their large supplies of gold... from 1997 to early 1999, the pervasive phenomenon ravaging world economies was DEFLATION... Korea, Japan, Indonesia were all imploding... memory chips were dumped on the market... crude oil went down to $9... deflation truly threatened... the USA benefited perversely as our supply costs and import costs went down... Euro Central Banks were sitting on billion$ of gold and unloaded some, keeping most... they purchased USTBonds that earned a dividend with that money... in a declioning interest rate environment, that made sense and earned profit now we have the supposed onset of inflation... so why isnt gold rising?... you say it is not a valid indicator anymore?... I say it will always be, to some extent... gold is not subject to cartel activity crude oil is a great indicator of economic expansion... price per barrel is rising in trend, but falling in recent weeks... does that mean inflation by your indicator is falling since the Post-Y2K months of Jan-March ??? ... interesting how your inflation indicator is a commodity controlled at least 50% by a cartel... they overly restricted the supply side, thus engineering a price increase precisely when the world's economies were simultaneously running on all cylinders dont be surprised if the oil cartel isnt soon responsible for an explosion in electric car production... my point is surely farfetched on a national macro level... but LosAngeles will become a testbed... its municipal vehicles and federal vehicles will be electric on widespread basis soon... the technology will be there soon... as for Peoria Illinois, doubtful for years and years I do think the free market economies require expanding capital in Money Supply to continue the great experiment called capitalism... its bubble has always been present in the form of govt controlled infusion of money... we got the Great Depression because no Federal Reserve kept the blood supply in the intravenous bag when the patient was ill this stock market bubble ends when the BabyBoomers begin NOT to contribute money into the system, but rather to DRAW money out via redemptions during retirement... like in y2012-2015 for starters... however, if current history is any measure, the redemptions will be much less than expected... my father is retired and earns twice annual income compared to his final year... he pulls money out at a trickle, with supplementary SocSecurity... he hints that my inheritance will be 5-10 times larger than I imagine from TIAA/CREF, which has done remarkably well in the last ten years in building a return on investment just my opinion, very thought provoking, and thanks / Jim Willie