To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (41430 ) 5/6/2000 1:28:00 AM From: milo_morai Respond to of 93625
Bad as the SDRAM supply situation is getting for mainstream consumers, the shortage could throw a wrench into the plans of Intel Corp. and Rambus Inc. to ramp Direct RDRAM production sharply in the second half. Semico's Garber agreed that memory vendors are loath to trade SDRAM production for Direct RDRAM, where initial yields are likely to be low. Samsung estimated Direct RDRAM could constitute 20% of its total DRAM shipments this year. Analysts noted that as the only vendor shipping Rambus in quantity to the computer market, Samsung is enjoying high margins, which it wants to maintain. Indeed, Eminian said Samsung has yet to substantially lower its Direct RDRAM RIMM module prices since it began volume shipments last November. Avo Kanadjian, vice president of marketing at Rambus, Mountain View, Calif., said Direct RDRAM prices will come down sharply this fall as more suppliers ramp production. Module manufacturer Kingston Technology Co., Fountain Valley, Calif., cut its RIMM prices an average of 35% last month, although the modules are still three to four times the price of a comparably sized SDRAM module, according to Garber. Other suppliers said it is not clear how much Rambus production they will ramp this fall. "We'll deliver whatever our customers want," said Jeff Mailloux, DRAM marketing manager at Micron Technology Inc., Boise, Idaho. "Right now, we're talking with OEMs about their DRAM requirements for the third quarter, and we're getting mixed signals on their demand for Direct Rambus." Ron Bechtold, vice president of Hitachi Semiconductor (America) Inc.'s DRAM division in San Jose, said DDR chips could be cushioned from the same issues facing Rambus, given that the interface is manufactured in much the same way as SDRAM. "We can wait very late in the production cycle to determine whether the wafer will be used for [single-data-rate] SDRAM or DDR-much closer to actual market demand," Bechtold said. Hitachi's quandary, ironically, is how much production capacity to allocate to trailing-edge EDO DRAM in the face of mounting SDRAM shortages. Bechtold said that as one of the few suppliers still making EDO, Hitachi is enjoying high margins on the older memory, which is still being used by many OEMs. "But you want to plan EDO production very carefully," he said. "You don't want the market to suddenly disappear and be left with a lot of inventory you can't sell." The third-quarter fate of Direct Rambus is being set now in a multitude of memory-supply negotiations between vendors and OEMs. It takes memory makers three months from wafer start to finished chip, which means producers are allocating their DRAM production now for chips that will come to market in the third quarter. Mailloux expressed a sentiment echoed by a number of other top-tier DRAM producers considering how much of their precious capacity to allocate to Direct RDRAM. "Rambus isn't going to enter the mainstream market until its large price differential over SDRAMs is drastically reduced," he said. "Because the majority of PC OEMs want to buy the cheapest memory possible, Rambus is going to have to cut the differential with SDRAM to nearly zero." ebnonline.com