Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arial who wrote (49575)	5/6/2000 2:48:00 PM
From: IndexTrader	Respond to of 99985

Arial, There is an interesting discussion of this cycle (12 1/2 year cycle) by Terry Laundry on his May 4th update. ttheory.com

To: Arial who wrote (49575)	5/7/2000 4:40:00 PM
From: Arial	Respond to of 99985

Alternate Wave Count for Gold: the-privateer.com All of the analysts I have read are convinced that the final bottom for gold was made at last year's low and that gold is currently resolving a wave 2 formation. While this may be true (and with all the macro shenanigans going on it is easy to believe), consider this alternative. From the late January 1980 spike high, the resulting wave IV correction has unfolded in an almost perfect yearly fashion. On the attached semi-log chart, the number 6 would denote the A wave and bottomed in February 1985, 5 years after the high (the previous (a) wave bottomed 2 1/2 years (50%) earlier. The number 7 would be the B wave and topped 8 years from the 1980 high (topped in Jan - turned down in Feb). Also, although it's hard to see on this log chart, the first (a) wave down from the 1980 spike high to the 3/80 low was equal in points (a few dollars off) to the (c) wave (5 to 6 on the chart). The distance from 4 to 5 was again just about equal to the distance from 6 to 7. The number 8 bottomed in 1993, 13 years from the top (Jan bottom-turned up in Feb). Number 9 topped and reversed in February 1996, 16 years. That would theoretically mean that the final bottom would occur 21 years from the 1980 spike high in January 2001, turning up in February for the start of wave V. Where most analysts have number 9 on the chart as the (e) wave of a triangle, with wave IV having been completed at 253 last year, this alternate count would have the C wave starting from number 7 (B wave) and unfolding in 5 waves as a diagonal triangle. The current rally would be viewed as an a-b-c (4) wave, so in order for this count to be valid, the next rally has to be repelled by that trend channel. There are 2 fib ratios that would make 214 a possible target for the end of wave C. A 78.6% retracement from the fixed gold rate of $35 to the 1980 873 spike high is 214. An 85.4% retracement of wave III (the 1976 low of 101.5 to 873) is 214. The wave I high was 195. Also, even though I might disagree with Chris Carolan on occasion, if his final top for stocks is accurate (December 2001), an initial blast off for gold in February 2001 would fit in with his scenario (wave 2 could go sideways until December 2001).