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To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (18034)5/7/2000 4:01:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
This is an interesting debate on ALSC. BT works around the chip business himself so don't be too quick to think he doesn't understand the dynamics at work.

In my experience, if a company's investment holdings are well known and the market won't give them "fair value" now, they probably never will. A 30-50% discount is typical.

No opinion or position in ALSC myself unless it breaks out to the upside.



To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (18034)5/7/2000 9:48:00 AM
From: tdl4138Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
Baird,

Very well done...if btate...or anyone else looking at ALSC doesn't understand the complete picture for ALSC...its not because you left anything out.

A lot of investors like btate want to look at the past to get a clearer picture of the future...I suppose I do the same. Alsc is in a situation where the "past" fundamentals have changed and the company and marketplace is entering a
new cycle. The way ALSC has positioned itself is...at least to me...intriqing.

Trying to evaluate ALSC...is similar to looking back at the oil service/ energy sector over the last 2 years...Both were out of favor for obvious reasons. Now that the supply and demand cycle has changed...you can't value an oil company this year when comparing how it performed when crude was $10 a barrel.

What I do see for ALSC is that their inherent "value" and "true worth" may not be recognized by the street and translated to their stock price. My thought in that event, is that sooner or later...someone will come along and buy them out...Especially if they continue to buyback stock and their bookvalue keeps climbing. The longer this cycle continues, the stronger their equity investments should become...along with their own core business...I haven't yet decided if the ALSC management team is extremely shrewd or extremely lucky...for their timely investments. Looking at their current financial position....I'm very curious as to what their plans are from here.

Dave



To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (18034)5/8/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: B TateRespond to of 118717
 
Baird
Thanks for the response, you've managed to state my feelings with much more clarity than I ;-)

As I've mentioned, having been a participant in a lot of the volatility mentioned in para. #1 I'm probably just gun shy at the moment.

I agree that the semi business is in an upturn on a general basis, however I'm not convinced that SRAM and DRAM will participate at the same rate as Analog/DSP/ASIC etc. Flash will show huge increases over time along with some of the newer technologies. But DRAM and SRAM ??????

I do business with two out of the three foundries mentioned in para. #4 and your statements are very accurate. I have recently been requested to provide hard forcast data for the next 18 months due to "an impending shortage of 6" wafers beginning in Q3". ALSC's allocation space alone with these FAB folks is probably worth as much if not more than their production.

As for the investment value I tend to agree with you, but we all know that the CMGI model is not evaluated on a consistent basis by Mr. Market. In this case the large portion of holdings in already public concerns mitigates this to some extent.

I will check your ref.s and thank you. Your response along with JSB and tdl are helpful and will push me towards more discovery..

Thanks again all for great responses

bernie