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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (41485)	5/7/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Ouch... Carl shorted AMZN at 59 while it was beginning its run to 110 per share. When did you close the short position Carl?

To: Dave B who wrote (41485)	5/7/2000 2:24:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: Jim Handy 1) Wrote "The Cache Memory Book"... Carl doesn't make oracle like pronouncements. He explains exactly why he has concerns regarding technical aspects and gives many links to backup his discussion. He doesn't just say "Rambus will own 10% of the DRAM market in 1999" like those analysts at Dataquest did. He carefully explains why he doesn't expect that to be the case. Nevertheless, I suggest you ignore Carl, comply with your own analysis and shift all of your assets to Rambus stock. It will serve you right.

To: Dave B who wrote (41485)	5/7/2000 8:14:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi re Dataquest and their RDRAM predictions. They've been wrong in the past, why do you trust them now? December 7, 1998 Targeted at the massive PC main-memory market, Direct Rambus solutions will represent 5% of the total DRAM market by next year [i.e. 1999], 30% by 2000, and about 60% by 2001, according to Dataquest. techweb.com June 14, 1999: According to Dataquest Inc., San Jose, Direct RDRAM, as tracked on a per-Mbyte basis, will account for just 3% of all DRAM shipped this year [i.e. 1999], but will jump to half of all DRAM shipments in 2001. techweb.com Dec 13, 1999: Rambus is likely to penetrate only 16% to 20% of the market in 2000, according to Dataquest Inc., San Jose-or about half that, according to more conservative estimates. techweb.com RDRAM percentages for various year, by Dataquest, by quote date of prediction: % 12/98 12/99 Actual 1999 5 NA 3% (probably less, this is a pre-Camino est.) 2000 30 16-20 2001 60 NA The actual figures for 1999 were 3%, I believe, so Dataquest overestimated RDRAM production for that year by 66%. Their figures for 2000 have already been revised down by half. The 16% estimate is from late '99, and I predict that it too, will have to be revised downwards. In fact, according to you, they've already revised it downwards: For 2000, though, we see a more gentle progression. RDRAMs will penetrate to reach 13 percent of the year's market over the course of the year, the bulk of this number shipping toward the end of the year. #reply-13465725 Given that Dataquest has never done anything but overestimate RDRAM usage, why are you trusting their figures in the future? More conservative estimators are saying 8 to 10% for 1999, they are probably closer than Dataquest. You have to take into account the fact that only a fraction of Samsung's production is in RDRAM, and Samsung (the major producer of RDRAM) is only a fraction of the DRAM industry. -- Carl P.S. Surprised you found my suggestion to short AMZN in 3Q99. Pretty good trade, by the way. Expert design engineers are out there designing stuff for clients that don't want their name splashed all over the internet. Dataquest experts need to have their name on as much paper as possible. Note that Dataquest wasn't predicting reliability and manufacturing problems for RDRAM before the Camino introduction, I was. I don't mean to run down Dataquest in the above. It's just that they are at too high a level to appreciate certain facts that are more evident to the workers in the trenches.

To: Dave B who wrote (41485)	2/20/2001 5:18:15 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Dave B; Back May 7th of last year, you discovered that I had suggested AMZN as a short in 3Q99. Here's your post: #reply-13608265. Back then AMZN was trading at around $58, down from around $80 at the end of 3Q99 and $62 at the beginning of 3Q99. Today, AMZN set a new 52-week low at $12 7/16. Any comment? -- Carl

To: Dave B who wrote (41485)	8/19/2001 2:17:22 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Dave B; Back in May 2000, you wrote: "You proclaim to know everything about memory and I'm trying to weigh your inputs against those of the Dataquest analysts Jim Handy and George Iwanyc who beleve that RDRAM will be 75% to 80% of the market and that the price will come down below that SDRAM." #reply-16230600 So. When is this RDRAM going to be 75~80% of the market, and when is it going to be cheaper than SDRAM? Maybe you should consider the possibility that you've carefully chosen which analysts you wish to believe based on your investments, rather than trying to understand what reality is. Nothing I predicted was much different from what Semico predicted. You guys did nothing but insult Semico (and me, for that matter) for 2 years, and now who does it turn out was right? By the way, the same thing applies to your analysis of the patent situation. All the time that Semico was saying "the patent issue hasn't been decided at court yet", you were following the Rambus wall street pumpers who were saying that the game was over and Rambus had won. Yeah, sure, hide behind the fact that these opinions were those of people other than yourself. *You were the one who chose who to believe, and you blew it.* -- Carl P.S. More along the same line: BTW, here's Part II of the Dataquest viewpoint. ... Now, if the RDRAM receives all the attention of the designers in the die-shrink group, and if the RDRAM constitutes the bulk of the market, then it is inevitable that RDRAM pricing should eventually drop below SDRAM pricing. This will then have a self-propelling effect of forcing RDRAM to be used in applications that don't need all that bandwidth, but that need to use the cheapest DRAM available. This means that anything from hard disk drives right down to the lowly digital telephone answering machine are likely to be found using RDRAMs in future years. For 2000, though, we see a more gentle progression. RDRAMs will penetrate to reach 13 percent of the year's market over the course of the year, the bulk of this number shipping toward the end of the year. DDR will not achieve such a high number and we expect to see the difference in penetration between the two technologies increase rather than decrease. Although it is likely that DDR's acceptance in graphics subsystems will ramp faster than will RDRAM (from a perspective of the percent of all systems penetrated) we do not anticipate that overall DDR shipments will ever come near those of RDRAMs. Jim Handy and George Iwanyc are senior analysts with , a market research firm based in San Jose. The first part of this Viewpoint appeared in the Jan. 10 issue of Electronic News. ------------- Nothing else to add, Carl. The premier research firm has spoken. #reply-13465725