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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (109641)	5/7/2000 11:20:00 AM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 1576972

Kash Re...<<<Intel sold around 32M units in q4 99.<<<<< Kash, actually I believe Intel said q1-00 was 32 mil units, 4q-99 was 31.4 mil. units. And Intel said they achieved that by selling inventory. So actual gain is a mystery. But lets take that .6 mill gain and project that out over 3 Q. and we come up with a whopping total of 33.8 mill. units for 4q-00. Unless Elmer is lying to me about yields , there isn't a mask improvement between now and 01/01-2001 which will allow Intel to improve production by 30% <<<The ww marketgrowth is supposed to be around 20% so that means they would have planned for 38.4M units assuming they add no margin to capture additional marketshare. <<< First of all, Intel will have to add to capacity between now and Sept, to manufacture that amount for 4q-00. I don't know of any fabs coming on line by then or outsourcing arrangements; so without yield increases; keeping up with worldwide sales increases will help AMD because AMD has the new fab, and chips coming on line. Also Timna is likely to be larger than Celeron, further decreasing production. In addition, if worldwide sales increase by 20% to 48 mil. units (AMD + iNTELS + 1.6 BY OTHERS) Intel would have to recapture 15% of AMDs sales, plus 100% of other sales to meet 43 mil sales by 4q-00; a far more wildly optimistic prediction than any of nicequys. <<<<<Clearly they have been adding capacity. In addition as 0.18 micron die sizes are smaller than previous generation parts this also provides more shippable parts. >>>>>>>> Yes, you would think so, in fact we have heard precisely this for a yr. from Intellabies about how Intels capacity would increase by 50 - 100% when Intel went to .18 from .25. Well guess what, Intel already has converted half of their fabs by end of first quarter; yet they manufactured only .6 mil. more chips. Evidence has shown Intel is not increasing volume at any appreciable rate by converting to .18. You say Intel is adding to capacity, but what capacity are we talking about which will be on line by Oct. <<<<I am curious to see your response to see if its based on logic or another personal attack. regards, Kash <<<<<<< As you can see I responded logically. There was no need for the type of personal attack you launched against niceguy. Secondly, if you would have bother to read what I said <<And this from the same guy who just a week ago ripped into niceguy for making optimistic predictions. How ironic?" >>>>>; you would have noticed I didn't attack you at all. I just pointed out the irony of you attacking niceguy for making wild predictions when here; lo and behold, you are doing the exact same thing. There is nothing wrong with predictions; as long as they have a hint of truth and honesty. Your predictions fall within that realm, but so do niceguys. I am not against you making predictions, or telling us about your buys and sells. personally I think you are a very astute trader. And sometimes if I was trading options I would try to mimic your moves, but niceguy also has that same right. If you don't like his predictions put him on ignore, but don't try to deprive us of hearing niceguys predictions, as personally, I like niceguys predictions as well. P.S. niceguy if you are reading this, lately you have toned down your predictions to try to please your critics; but some people are never happy with anybody but themselves; so quit being so down on yourself. This is not you; half-assed predictions with a half-assed enthusiasm. Liven up and be yourself. AMD is good, life is good.