Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (49679)	5/7/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 99985

Barbash on Shiller and Irrational Exuberance: washingtonpost.com

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (49679)	5/7/2000 12:21:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan, now you see why I am so reluctant of becoming a bull on gold, to be right, I have to hope for a catastrophe of major proportions in which a lot of people will be hurt badly. I just can't sleep well with such sinister hopes. Thus, I am, so far, a permabear on gold. (VBG). Zeev

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (49679)	5/7/2000 11:03:00 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan and Zeev, I must disagree with the following conceptions: "Zeev, >>Gosh, if the Asian melt down and the recent NAZ melt down did not do it, what will?" No way was the Asian meltdown a positive for gold. Gold has been on a downtrend since that event. The reasons are fairly evident and some have been mentioned by Joan. The Asian meltdown had no ill effect on the US consumer, short term the opposite occurred as it increased cheap imports to the US probably decreasing our inflation, a negative to gold. Furthermore, Asia, where people had their fortunes reversed in stock market crashes and economic recession, is the major buyer for gold in the world. Not only did people in Asian countries reduce their buying of gold, but in many cases they sold their gold (for example, do you remember Korea's appeal to their people to turn in their gold to help Korean government?) in order to make up their business or stock market losses. Since the price of gold rose in their devalued currencies it did indeed function as "insurance" for many folks in Asia. Between the lack of buying and the increased gold selling from these countries this was a huge negative for gold. Similar to what the Asian crisis did for the oil prices in 98-early 99. Frankly, I can't understand how the Asian crisis would be used as a example of where gold should have gone up, it was an extremely negative gold event. As for the NAZ, well, it did budge, a little, but like Joan said, their is no fear, so no substantial gold reaction. The No Fear generation will have to be beaten up quite badly to react with fear instead of bravado, when they are hurt badly, since it is new to them, it may result in a BIG fear. I would say if, but it seems it is only a matter of time, IMHO. Nothing lasts forever. Finally, as to gold in general, I am cautiously optimistic, because market conditions now are quite different than they have been over the last few years. So I am dipping my toes in gold instead of just trading, as I did in oil back when it was "going to five dollars a barrel". What the heck, we've had Goldfinger, Goldilocks, why not GoldiToes?? VBG Roebear