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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (49708)	5/7/2000 6:57:00 PM
From: Egret	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"as for 5 rate hikes, 3 were already assumed to be taken back." I think that is.....Wall St./Fed/PPT spin. I will change that opinion if you could show me when in history; rate hikes followed by rate cuts were 'meaningless' because they were only 'taking back' the hikes?(g)

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (49708)	5/8/2000 9:53:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 99985

I've said this a zillion times..the only thing that stops this remarkable freight train, is interests rates..period... I see this entire last 6 weeks or so, as precursor to a mild recession..probably 1st & 2nd quarter of 01... Great analysis OJ... A recession is long overdue... But, I see a 1/2 point rate hike as the culmination of the series of rate hikes... The Nasdaq was 36% and now is 27% off its highs, the Dow was 13% and now is 10% off its highs... Relative to years of double digit increases in these averages these are bear market declines... So, one could argue that the rate hikes are already paid for... The Nasdaq has been riding up a very narrow Symmetrical Triangle... The upper border is now 3751... The lower border is now 3720... As I type, we seem to be bouncing off this lower boundary... Today we should see clashes of the longs and shorts... The intermediate term direction of the market is at stake... I'm going to go out on a limb and say we've seen the worst... We'll most likely move into a period of lateral consolidation... No big ups or downs... The options players are going to hate this... : >

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (49708)	5/8/2000 9:53:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 99985

I've said this a zillion times..the only thing that stops this remarkable freight train, is interests rates..period... I see this entire last 6 weeks or so, as precursor to a mild recession..probably 1st & 2nd quarter of 01... Great analysis OJ... A recession is long overdue... But, I see a 1/2 point rate hike as the culmination of the series of rate hikes... The Nasdaq was 36% and now is 27% off its highs, the Dow was 13% and now is 10% off its highs... Relative to years of double digit increases in these averages these are bear market declines... So, one could argue that the rate hikes are already paid for... The Nasdaq has been riding up a very narrow Symmetrical Triangle... The upper border is now 3751... The lower border is now 3720... As I type, we seem to be bouncing off this lower boundary... Today we should see clashes of the longs and shorts... The intermediate term direction of the market is at stake... I'm going to go out on a limb and say we've seen the worst... We'll most likely move into a period of lateral consolidation... No big ups or downs... The options players are going to hate this... : >