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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hui zhou who wrote (9632)	5/8/2000 3:13:00 AM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 9980

ASTV - The ties to Li Kai-Shing (one of the richest people in the world) are very close. The half-brother of the President of ASTV runs New World Development (I believe this is the largest company in China?). One of the ASTV Directors helped bail out Donald Trump when he had his problems a few years back with his real estate holdings. The relationships with the government in Beijing government are second to none. China is apparently going to be accepted into the WTO in the next few weeks (relighting the China stock frenzy of several months ago?). ASTV was the first Chinese company to be accepted on any stock exchange in the United States after the 1997 reunion of Hong Kong with China. The wealth and power in this company are enormous. In typical Chinese style they are low-key and have quietly put things in place to build a powerhouse in the months and years to come. I expect a spin-off into the European markets, at the minimum a listing on the NASDAQ small-cap (they prefer the national board) and a dual listing on the Hang Seng within the next year. They have ties to major brokerages around the world and will soon "come out of the closet" so-to-speak. In the next eight weeks or so a minimum of four press releases are expected, the last of which should attract worldwide attention. It was put into perspective for me in this manner - There are 1.3 billion people in China. If each person in China spent $1.00 per day on an essential service that would create revenues of $39 Billion dollars per month. Reduce that figure to 10% to be extremely conservative, the % is much higher in all developed countries in the world, that still leaves $3.9 Billion dollars per month. This is potentially what will happen to ASTV. There are only 16 million shares out and around 1.3 million in the public float. In all seriousness potential share prices in the 100's of dollars were talked about. I hold a sizable investment (for me) in this company. I am not an investment advisor and am not professionally qualified to make recommendations. But I do have three university degrees and have done business internationally for two decades. If this all pans out I've never seen a better opportunity. I've told my family and many of my best friends to make sure they have a piece in their retirement plans. It's a virtual no-lose situation at these levels IMO and I felt compelled to alert you to what I perceive as a very rare opportunity over the near and long term.

To: hui zhou who wrote (9632)	5/16/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Death of a Reformer and China's Economic Policy Summary On May 10, Li Fuxiang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), died after falling seven floors from a hospital in Beijing. Li, head of SAFE since 1998, was one of the first staff from the Bank of China to study international management in the United States and was widely considered to be free from the taint of corruption. Li's death comes amid reports that he was recently called to assist in the investigation of a former SAFE head, Zhu Xiaohua, and that Li himself may have been under investigation for irregularities perpetrated by SAFE. With even the most reform-minded among China's economic policymakers facing charges of corruption and mismanagement, the nation's economic policy is approaching total disarray. Analysis On May 10, Li Fuxiang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), fell to his death from the seventh story of Beijing's Number 304 Hospital. Li's death, kept quiet in China, was widely reported in Hong Kong's media as a likely suicide due to stress or due to alleged links to a major Chinese corruption scandal. The event raises questions about the future of China's economic reform policies. His death comes amid rumors that he was either called to assist with the investigation into former SAFE head Zhu Xiaohua or that he was under investigation himself for inappropriate activities. However, Li was widely considered untainted by the myriad of economic scandals in China, according to several foreign financial professionals cited by Hong Kong media. Prior to serving at SAFE, Li had worked as a currency trader with the Bank of China in New York. Li was the first in a series of Bank of China employees to study international management in the United States, starting his studies at the University of Texas at Dallas in 1981. Li was devoted to his work and was characterized as having a strong sense of duty and honor, according to Dr. Stephen Guisinger, Li's former professor and long-time associate. Guisinger added that Li's possible successor, Deputy Director Zhao Jianping, was also a former student at UT Dallas. ___________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text and accompanying articles? stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ Li's alleged links to corruption arose during a government investigation into China Everbright Bank, which operates under the guidance of China's State Council, headed by Prime Minister Zhu Rongji. Zhu Rongii appointed Zhu Xiaohua to head China Everbright in 1996 in order to reform the Bank. Around the same time, Li was made Deputy Director of SAFE. He was then promoted to director in 1998 amid a reorganization of China's financial apparatus to facilitate greater central control over the nation's economic policies. Zhu Xiaohua was removed from China Everbright in July 1999 amid charges of improper investments. His replacement, Shao Zhengkang, was reportedly detained in April and is also being investigated for economic irregularities at China Everbright. China Everbright also allegedly invested $200 million in a Shanghai investment firm with funds coming from SAFE. This led to Li's implication in the investigation, according to Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily. The investment violated Chinese regulations that ban state investment or bailouts of state-owned international investment firms. Allegations of economic corruption have rocked China's leadership, bringing investigations extremely close to the top. The cases of Li Fuxiang, Zhu Xiaohua and Shao Zhengkang bring corruption allegations close to the architect of China's economic reforms - Zhu Rongji. The wife of a close confidant of President Jiang Zemin was linked to a massive corruption case in the southern city of Xiamen. As well, a protege of Li Peng was expelled from the Communist party for corruption prior to the annual Congress session in April. While corruption and misuse of power has spread throughout China's political apparatus, the anti-corruption campaign increasingly has become a tool of factional fighting. This has led to near paralysis of Beijing's decision-making abilities. China's fiscal policy-makers have been rendered impotent through continuing battles among the State Council under Zhu Rongji, the executive apparatus under Jiang Zemin and the National People's Congress under Li Peng. This has been further exacerbated by fears of politically-driven corruption investigations that spare the top leaders but strike at their supporters or proteges. Li and Zhu Xiaohua were once key promoters of Zhu Rongji's economic liberalization and reform. Whereas Zhu Xiaohua was sent to China Everbright to clean it up and reform it, Li was promoted at SAFE to stem foreign currency flight and utilize his knowledge of Western economic systems amid the restructuring of China's central banking and exchange system. Li may have been driven to suicide over the morass of China's economic policies. He may also have been assisted in his fall because he knew too much. Whether by suicide or foul play, Li's death clearly signals a breakdown in China's macroeconomic policy- making apparatus. Guilty or not, China's economic leaders are absorbed in dealing with the political battles in Beijing, not in guiding China's economic future. With even the most reform-minded elements under investigation, Beijing's financial policy is caught in the middle of scandals and factional competition. This leaves China's economic future in limbo until someone steps in to redirect policy. With Zhu Rongji and his Western-trained allies now under the gun, economic policies will likely revert to a more traditional - and less transparent - Chinese system, but not before it collapses from a lack of guidance. _______________________________________________ For more Analyses on China: stratfor.com _______________________________________________ (c) 2000 WNI, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com