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To: Dave B who wrote (41586)	5/8/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

<lack of understanding about how the major research houses operate. ... they are typically "sharing" environments -- you give a little, you get a little.> You are right! You get very little. What else, besides wishful plans, can be "shared" with a stranger-"researcher" if everyone knows that the guy will be telling this to your competition? Only the bluff - you give the bluff because you know that you will get in return the same baloney. It is ridiculous to think that any real information, especially about any problems, are ever surfaced at these meetings. That's why all the "predictions" of these "researches" are so far from reality. I can tell you more: those "engineering and operational people" are usually top-rank company managers. After a certain decision and internal commitment has been made, they are interested in getting their job done, and not where your competition is stumbling. They want to reach the company's goals no matter what, and must believe that all problems can be solved. With their typical experience from the past, they may not understand the depth of new problems like "signal integrity" of high-speed designs. There were no such problems in their past experience. Unfortunately, when someone wants to jump instantly 10 times over the current technology, from 100 to 800MHz, the past experience just does not work, it is disconnected and is not applicable any more, so the people gets disconnected from reality. They cannot comprehend that some problems may not be solved within current cost constraints as they wish and plan. Finally, your "..suppose the industry was only going to build a total of 10 SDRAM chips this year" does not bode well with other part of your sentiment: "...Simple business reality". Get real :) Another one: "As SDRAM production decreases, prices will rise." First, it is not for sure that the SDRAM production will decrease. Second, where have you seen rising prices on well matured production chips? For example, prices on FP DRAMs remain about the same for the last 5 years, even if very few are using them. - Ali