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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (31594)	5/8/2000 9:05:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42523

MM, many fundamentals are indeed sounder than they were in Japan (especially the less onerous regulatory framework). however, if you look back to what was said in '89, there were only very few people questioning Japan's economic fundamentals. on the contrary, Japan was held high as an example as to how things should be done. let's not forget that the US have a current account deficit approaching 500 bn. dollars this year and absolutely mind-boggling private sector indebtedness. these two factors will contribute to the next economic downturn being more severe than it would be without them. the litmus test will be what happens in the next recession...will it be exacerbated by by these factors? i think it will. especially the huge private sector debt is of concern in this regard. should the consumer decide it may be more prudent to save than spend and speculate for a while, things could quickly turn nasty. that said, right now the consumer seems extremely confident.