To: mishedlo who wrote (41618 ) 5/8/2000 1:53:00 PM From: Bilow Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Hi mishedlo; Re Semico's forecasts of RDRAM. They have been better than Dataquest at this.Semico Research Corp., Phoenix, projects SDRAM shipments will reach their peak in 1999 with 60.2% of the market, dropping to 45.4% in 2000. However, growth for SDRAM II (DDR) begins at a weak 2.9% in 1999, but reaches 18.5% in 2000 and 28% in 2001. During that same period, Semico estimates RDRAM/SLDRAM will garner only 0.9% of the market, but will grow to 10.1% in 2000 and reach 26% in 2001. techweb.com Direct Rambus and DDR each will account for less than 7% of worldwide DRAM unit shipments in 2000, while a little more than three-fourths of the market will be PC100/PC133 devices, according to Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. In 2001 and 2002, DDR and Direct RDRAM will gain ground at the expense of PC100/PC133. techweb.com On the conservative side, Semico Research Corp., Phoenix, said SDRAM will represent 65.5% of all DRAM unit shipments this year, vs. 1.7% for Direct Rambus. In 2001, Rambus will still present only 13.6% of units shipped, compared with 48.8% for SDRAM, the company estimated. techweb.com However, noting compatibility issues and yield problems associated with a new architecture, Semico is forecasting a conservative 30 million to 50 million Direct RDRAM units shipped in 1999, compared with other forecasts as high as 500 million units shipped. techweb.com Semico Research Corp., Phoenix., has cast a dim light on volume projections, estimating that vendors are equipped to produce a mere 33 million Direct RDRAM ICs in 1999. High-end processors shipping from Intel alone will require between 170 million and 200 million DRAM units, according to Semico analyst Sherry Garber. "You can't get there from here," she said. techweb.com
