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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (47357)	5/8/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

My take on the low volume is that all the weak hands have been wiped out in the carnage and the strong hands are holding at these levels and would like a nice rally to get them out of their positions. For more serious selling to occur the inflation outlook has to worsen considerably from here. Anindo

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (47357)	5/9/2000 2:13:00 AM
From: wanmore	Respond to of 94695

My $0.02. I will use the term "everyone" loosely here Everyone sees the low volume. Everyone sees the prolonged extremely wide sideways trends in both the DOW (roughly 10000 to 11400)and the S&P ( I'm just gonna say 1475 and 1350 to be rough)and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ (let's just call that one 3200 to 4000). Everyone thinks stocks have been beaten up as bad as they are gonna be beaten. Every one feels that a 50 bp rate hike is already priced into the market. On top of all that , everyone is waiting for that rally that they will be able to sell everything into at break even. We know that "everyone" is generally WRONG, but for some strange reason , I still expect an upside breakout. I'm wondering if we might get some sort of "it aint a breakout....it's a fakeout" after the FOMC meeting that preludes the next downleg. All the signs of a meltdown are here. Extreme bullishness/confidence in the market (people are holding positions that are down 30% , 40%, 50% and more because they feel confident that it will come back), rising interest rates (heck, if the TYX was a stock, I'd buy it!!!), inflationary enviroment (yes, food and energy count), rampant debt (even to the extent of borrowing to put money into stocks), overvaluations in stocks (yes, they are still overvalued when trading @ 100x projected revenues). One thing I forgot. It is an election year...Oh yeah, that....sorry....forget all that gloom & doom stuff above. I forgot we had that magic card that gives us safe and profitable markets during any election year. Whew, I was nervous there for a sec. Lemme see......that AMZN should be ready to run soon......<g>