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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (47364)	5/8/2000 7:06:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 94695

remember, in the sixties it was often argued that inflation is GOOD for stocks, due to the fact that both the value of underlying assets as well as pricing power increase. market participants were only disabused of that notion during the galloping inflation of the 70's to early '80's. whichever era immediately precedes a stock market boom is responsible for the perceptions acquired during the boom. since the most negative experience preceding the up-wave (in the Kondratyev sense) boom of the 50's and 60's was the deflationary depression and its decimation effect on stocks, inflation was regarded as 'good'. the most recent negative experience market participants have had is the inflationary excess of the '70's, thus inflation is now considered 'bad'. the truth is, whether it is bad or good most likely depends on where we are in the Kondratyev wave. i personally think we are in what some term as the 'false spring'. a period of a cyclical inflation upturn immediately preceding the return of disinflation and ultimately deflation, as the 'winter' finally takes hold. that leaves me to note that there are proponents of this being the 'real' spring out there. they think that the '98 deflation scare was all we got in terms of 'winter' of the downwave. their view is premised on the notion that modern economies have smoothed out the 'winter' effect, unless the experience of the '30's which was the last discernible 'winter'. of course this notion is constantly challenged by the burst bubble of Japan. if it's not 'winter' there, what is it?