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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scotty who wrote (49836)	5/8/2000 6:35:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

i bookmarked that post earlier today already. it will be interesting to see if it turns out to be prophetic. the sums involved in the derivatives game are so staggering it's scary. one of the many excesses. i wouldn't be surprised to see the notional value of all outstanding derivatives losing a zero at some point...

To: scotty who wrote (49836)	5/8/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 99985

<<. The issue really bottles down to the extent of rot and systemic risk in the credit market, IMHO.>> I agree, that's a very grim and (regrettably) very realistic scenario. I think the MCHVE may occur a bit sooner than the author does, by late June or July at the latest. As he says above, the real determinant as to whether a crash occurs will be the degree of instability produced by uncontrolled credit creation in the MBS and CP markets. Based on the growth of MZM and the extent of overtrading (read: market volume in both the equity and real estate markets), I feel that it is now unavoidable.