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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rudedog who wrote (44537)	5/8/2000 10:03:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

The Ultimate Paradigm Shift: >>JC - the next major paradigm shift (I rate the rise of the internet as the last one) will be the shift away from OS and LAN centric architectures to a "meta-layer" which rides above the OS. This is not the cosmic "network is the computer" because it's not the network either. JDN and others have been enamored by the EMC pitch about storage being the core of the new paradigm - that's not it either. Compute resources, storage, application hosting capability, and local security policy will be superceded by services which assume that those components exist in a relatively agnostic and fungible way. The key drivers of this new paradigm will be management of routes, available bandwidth, content delivery in a more deterministic mode, intelligent migration of data and applications, enablement of devices whose user format is less specific than current html or even XML can support. I already see a shift to that model among the same kind of people who were hot on the potential of the internet in 1993. I think this shift is inevitable and already underway, and I believe that all of the major players - including MSFT and SUNW - recognize the shift and are jockeying for position. Big winners will be the people who can capture developer mindshare with a compelling and universal development environment for this new world. SUNW has some early traction with JAVA and related initiatives, but that is ante for the game, not the winning hand. Big losers will be those who try and exploit a "platform" architecture - I think EMC falls into that category, along with some others, and I think that's what some of the increasingly desperate rhetoric from EMC is designed to hide. As that new paradigm develops, the potential for disruptive activity rises right along with it. The infrastructure providers will need to develop a new way of thinking about their security models both to assure that market forces don't drive abuse of privacy and confidentiality, and also to keep e-commerce in its consumer flavor from degenerating into chaos. ISPs as we know them today will evolve - either towards an ASP model, or into an increasingly commoditized service business at the edge of the net. In either role, they are the logical place for some kinds of content management to avoid disruptive activity.>> RudeDog: Well stated. This is where all my bets are right now. Technology will completely reorient 180% to serve INDIVIDUALS, not companies - ie. LAN/WAN environments. And the individual energy, light, innovation and creativity that's going to be released in supporting this shift will completely blow away anything we've witnessed to date: 1) Total and complete "unbundling" of the Old Business model. 2) Rise of a New "Service" model. 3) Core requirements shift to values and principals that support "growing the pie" mindsets: family, personal time, and all the possible "individual" leverage that goes into doing whatever we have to do to "make a positive difference in the world." 4) The complete and TOTAL end of ALL competition. What?? Yes, complete, total. Done. Period. We're all "transforming" as I type this to the next stage - where cooperation, collaboration, connectivity and community is fused by the ubiquitous empower "rise of commiunity" led by the examples of a growing number of empowered/selfless INDIVIDUALS - the "Oprah effect"?? - worldwide. 5) Tectonic shift toward street/neighborhood/community/family-based knowledge/service circles of influence, energy, etc. The next huge area of impact for the net is massive transformational unbundling that will take place in the way we "think" about education as it relates to knowledge, wisdom, mastery, etc. 6) INDIVIDUALS - not companies - controlling EVERYTHING - ALL tools and services, including security, access, storage, profiles, permission, authentication. All that's needed is a growing commitment to help, serve and share with people in ways that build, support and develop TRUST. 7) The massively growing realization that the ultimate currencies are really related and deeply integrated with only two things in life: TIME and TRUST. We all have limited TIME. And money is nothing more than anonymous TRUST. The REAL net revolution is about a secret nobody likes to acknowledge and few understand: TRUST is becomming the REAL virtual currency of the world. The value of "money" is being transcended. Just look around you. Companies can't pay people enough to equate to real VALUES relating to their need for more flexibility and family related concerns. Companies that offer these new forms of "psychic currency" are able to attract talented people. It the same spiritual/light/value "net effect" which is sweeping the world. 8) Declining use of the term "employee" for the mindset shift will increasingly look upon traditional "employment" as a throwback to an earlier time when power rested in the belief and faith in structural control. "Targeted/Verified Trust" along with community standards of enforcement - not unlike an eBay merchant trail - will become THE standard. We will all be associates with one another as more and more of the barriers, limitations and restrictions of ego branding and damming get exposed and leveled, etc. 9) I promise to END with #9..... And with this weeks Business Week we will probably see the last of the E-Biz 25. I really think the word "Business" will be trashed from this point forward. The entire world is moving away from BUSINESS to a SERVICE model. Carly has it right: e-services. And the best thing she can do is invite the entire world to freely use the term. For the dog eat dog days are over. Peace. GO!! Note: Bill and Steve are still angry Wizards of Oz. This will be their downfall.