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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ACAN who wrote (35408)	5/9/2000 4:04:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79237

Allan, "...gracious winner speech..." heheheh... But... A gang of caveats looms large at this point. First...it's not over until it's over Second...the S&P only has a day or two from here to correct a very ominous technical situation. Third...well...wouldn't ya know it....Marvin Roffman is still having trouble coming to grips with his Philly Mag performance. First (about 2 months ago) he had a complaint that there was no provision in the rules to account for commissions. Now...I can see his point BUT...NOBODY paid commissions on the initial taking of positions. At the time of his complaint, his portfolio was negative (it still is and has never been positive). When the magazine called me to relay his concern I was between trades and had $4500 in cash. I informed the magazine that I had no problem with any shift toward accounting for commissions. I told them Ameritrade's commissions are "8 dollars my man". That got a chuckle or two. The salient point then became Roffman and Peroni's commission liabilities. Well...since they were both negative...the only 2 ways for them to meet their own commission obligations were to sell something to raise the cash or go on margin somehow and borrow the cash. The contention was dropped immediately thereafter....heheheh. NOW however...Marvin Roffman has "decided" that an accounting method which deducts tax liabilities from any gain immediately upon the realization of that gain is "preferred". The guy's definitely stewing over this thing. I suppose he feels that the more money I make, the less I'll have after taxes...and...that real-life type of compounding on short term gains is beyond his area of experience so he shouldn't have to compete with it. Now for the really serious stuff............. Look at the 13,8,8 sto on the S&P. It's set up for a downward xover but after today it retained the potential to avoid it....on rotten volume. Look at the 233,21,34. If the 13,8,8 doesn't get its sht together real* soon....the 233 will accelerate to the downside. That's not at all good for the long side of things. Look at the 89,3,5. Its %K is working toward a confrontation with its %D. If the %K finds the %D as resistance and puts in a negative knee, an acceleration of the downtrend on the indicator will be established. Downward accelerations on the 89,3,5 are not at all fun. IF the 13,8,8 fails then the 89,3,5 puts in a negative knee which greatly adds to the potential for downward acceleration in the 233,21,34. Should this occur, the downside risk on the S&P gets pretty intense. Look at the 233 dCCI. Classic top formation evident: price and indicator both move to a high.... next price high, the indicator makes a lower high.... 3rd price high, the indicator bounce above the lower high but still peaks below the first high. Now we gotta go to the 4,3,2. Sheez...when you hafta take the S&P all the way out to the 4,3,2 when the above situation exists...it's crunch time. The 4,3,2 has crossed up over the last 2 trading days. There's now an IHS with an uptrending neckline (uptrending IHS necklines are not optimal). An IHS on the 4,3,2 also introduces the prospect of TC. BUT...the prospect of TC is not in and of itself an indication of anything. The upward xover requires upward acceleration....or a quick (one day) hitch down followed by a strong kick up in order to lend some help to the 13,8,8. Whatever happens over the next 2 days...it's important. The S&P reached an intraday alltime high on 3/24. That last move to the top was very typical of the type of pre-correction tops we've seen over the last several years........typical in that it really had no business going there because the immediate result was a correction coming off an obviously questionable technical profile. This time may very well be quite different than those of the last several years. I give it 1 to 3 days to turn (one day is all I should really give it though). There's already one lower high on the S&P price chart. This is where each previous "correction" in this secular bull market has taken things but this one has a good bit more grit in its teeth. If I were to give an estimate of downside potential from here I'd have to say.....1100---ish. The next day or 3 seem to be a crucial pivot. We got the correction. Now...is there demand enough (or enough lack of supply) for a resumption of the bull? If not...this thread goes very short. Mag guy picked up on things right away: Message 13372633 Doug R