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Gold/Mining/Energy : Francisco Gold - FGX.V -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russet who wrote (802)	5/9/2000 10:33:00 AM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Respond to of 1907

Being long an exploration stock is much more difficult than being short. The odds are heavily in favor of the project not being economic. So the timing of the short is very important as well as being correct on the economic meaning of the data. But it's just easier once you have the economics on your side. Going long is much more difficult and my goal is to be right and long because that is a better test of analytical ability. Most of what you say about FGX is true and the stock has become an orphan. Orphaned stocks, however, can provide exceptional value subject to the assets of course. That's the bet here. The Mexican properties provide some downside protection and Montana Co gives some upside. In my view, the probability is that the stock has more up than down from C$5.50. But, if gold were to go to US$100 then the bleeding has just began. And, management probably could have sold the company long ago but couldn't get what they thought was a fair price for the assets because the majors were low-balling everything thinking that all juniors would be desparate for liquidity. Maybe that's not true here as I don't see a desparate company and I've seen many.