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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24389)	5/9/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, << CDMA adoption is clearly in a tornado but the numbers continue to slip >> GSM numbers have been posted (for several weeks) and obviously calculate off a larger initial base: gsmworld.com Total GSM Subscribers: 1st Q '99 = 160.9 2nd Q '99 = 187.4 3rd Q '99 = 215 4th Q '99 = 254.7 1st Q '00 = 285.4 I didn't run the percentages. You might want to do so. Also forecasted growth (annual, not quarterly) is here: gsmworld.com EMC is pretty reliable. Their forecast for 99 erred a tad to the conservative side if I recall. - Eric -

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24389)	5/9/2000 3:10:00 PM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

CDMA tornado??? That means 7.2 million subscribers were added in the 1st quarter. While it's no surprise that fewer subscribers were added than in the gift-giving 4th quarter (though that quarter was also a little disappointing), it is a surprise to me that fewer subscribers were added in Q1 than the 7.5 million added to the books in Q3. I noticed that as well; and am concerned. The CDG site doesn't yet list the specifics as it hasn't yet been updated. When they do, we'll be able to discern on what continent growth slowed in particular. Based on last Quarter, growth was slowing in Asia. cdg.org Stan

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24389)	5/10/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Merlin, is it possible that tornados can have different contours depending upon the circumstances? I mean, take the following two cases: In case one, a disruptive technological innovation occurs in a sector involving a mass market, many small producers, and little regulation. The shape of the tornado here should follow the standard S-shaped curve of the TALC, I assume. But in case two, the disruptive technological innovation occurs in a sector where a few giant producers dominate the market, which is in turn segmented along national lines because of government regulations and other factors. Now wouldn't you expect the tornado, like the TALC, to be less smooth than in case one, especially over any brief period? I would, because in some ways the mass market here would resemble a giant bowling alley, with each dominant player and/or national market segment representing a separate pin. Progress through the tornado and TALC would thus be more likely to follow a step-function, with the steep parts coming as the pins are knocked down and the less steep parts coming in the fallow periods between such events. Might it not be that the CDMA tornado is more like case two than case one, given the high switching costs of some dominant players (T, Europe) and the need for regulatory approval in important markets (China)? I'm thinking of a sort of "punctuated equilibrium" here, and positing that the slower-than-expected growth you're noticing might be caused by a lull between the fall of some big pins. Just a thought, comments welcome, and I plead guilty to wanting to avoid at all costs the conclusion that anything might be wrong with our strapping young pongid... tekboy/Ares@Q4tornado=wintersturme.com

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24389)	5/10/2000 11:34:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

>>I also believe that the only way the numbers will substantially improve for the voice-only subscribers is if the company does a far better job of getting the word out to consumers about the advantages of CDMA. The typical consumer doesn't ask for CDMA. Worse, the typical consumer buying a wireless device or the typical employee using an employer-owned device has never heard of CDMA.<< Excellent observation. I think the phone companies have so far missed an opportunity here. Instead of framing the CDMA vs TDMA choice as a Beta vs. VHS format choice, they advertise using words like: clearer connections. That is like a bank advertising "friendlier people". No one listens to such words; they are fluffed off as advertising hype. QCOM, Sprint, Bell Atlantic/V should start to play up a "Qualcomm Inside" angle, with some mention of the technoligical difference and how it benefits the users. After the surge in stock price last year many people who never heard of QCOM now know the name. This should be capitalized on, before it fades into memory. StockHawk

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24389)	5/10/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, we might say that it's digital phone technology that's in the tornado. CDMA is only a part of that tornado, since apparently GSM is doing well too. QCOM status as a gorilla is weakened considerably by it's distance from the purchaser of the end product. It means that the brand is with the cell phone maker, not QCOM. The cell phone makers will keep it that way. Trying to explain CDMA to the average user is hopeless- they are not interested and would have no way to tell that it wasn't just PR fluff. Companies using non CDMA equipment are deep into the sunk money trap.The longer they can delay, the longer before they will have to admit error, and the more chance that they can find ways around Qualcomm's IP. Eventually they will probably cave in but it may be too slow to sustain a rapid growth rate for QCOM. Royalties aren't enough, and it's the nature of IP's value to decay with time. QCOM needs to sell lots of ASIC. Personally, I have my doubts whether the public really has any big demand for complex data over hand held wireless, at least if it makes the device a lot more bulky or expensive. It's certainly going to be more bulky unless the problems of screen size and input can be solved. (Retinal scan, speech recognition?) E-mail and things like stock quotes seem more likely. Of course nobody really knows so it's all guess work. The latest paper issue of Red Herring has an interesting article on NTT DoCoMo - some of it's success could be due to unique Japanese factors (like a $700 activation fee for a new land line) but it's the closest glimpse we have into voice/data wireless. Their cell phones are small and affordable. I have no position in QCOM at this time. I'm not trying to rain on anybody's parade, just raising some questions. I'm also wide open for reasons to buy in again. Luke