To: Boplicity who wrote (10097 ) 5/9/2000 4:48:00 PM From: Hank Stamper Respond to of 24042
"well it make's me sick, I don't like to see a market damaged like this one is becoming, the only thing I want now is a real large drop, I want it to go way down." A few posts back someone, I cannot recall who, wrote about the market coming back later this year. First, if one takes that position, one must be able to say why the present conditions--the ones that lead us into trouble--will be different then. Yes, this is a damaged market and economy. Ironically, the very strength of the economy is what brought about the damage. Here is a my short list of what must be 'corrected' by the ongoing shakeout: 1. Complacency: sure 'investors are nervous' and sitting on the sidelines (that's why the volumes have been so low). But, for this to be a completed correction, we have to see an utter capitulation by the bulls. We ain't even close! 2. Inflation: All fall there were signs of future inflation. Now we have it in the here-and-now (zen inflation). The Fed is hard at work and we have to see the future numbers (remember me harking on FIBER? Yep, FIBER said last Fall that inflation was on its way) point to a slowing. Right now, they are still showing signs of excelleration. This has to reverse and show signs of slowing before the Fed will release liquidity and reduce interest rates. 3. Related to #2: In the process of slowing the economy, there are always casulties. I.e., there are layoffs and bankruptcies in the business and personal domains. We have not seen this yet. I predict that one of the collateral signs that it is time to begin buying again is when the news is filled with stories about layoffs and how crummy the business of e-commerce is and how many of those companies are out of business and how terrible it is to be an engineer who used to make gobbs of money in salary and options and now the guy's driving a cab. This seems impossible to imagine now, even to me. But, I'd be willing to bet my best recepie for crow that this will come to pass. With all good wishes, David Todtman