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To: surpow who wrote (24400)5/9/2000 3:11:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
Noah,

In your estimation, would that lead to a second consecutive quarter in declining revenue for QCOM?

I'm not an analyst so I'm not the right one to answer that question. Your question does cause me, however, to shed some light on some critically important perspective.

Remember that while revenue has been declining, profits are rising. That's because some money-losing businesses have been shed. It's critical that we look at EPS in context of pro forma numbers so we understand the total picture.

There are two critical issues about growth that Jacobs mentioned in the interview at the end of that article just posted. The first point is that unit royalties are expected to decline about 20% per year. That's because the royalties are based on a percentage of the selling price of the product. The second point is that, to offset that natural decline in unit selling price that is typical of consumer-based technology products, more units will have to be sold. With CDMA subscriber growth having declined to 100% annual growth, the growth in units will more than compensate for the decline in unit royalty.

--Mike Buckley