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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10903)	5/9/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 60323

Zeev, I appreciate your TA, but how does your analysis account for things such as the JV announcement that indicated the Toshiba/SNDK agreement is finalized? I was watching all day on a Level II. More than anyone, there were huge sales on Instinet, the same as the past several days. I suspect that a fund or institution wants to unload at any price. Just like after the earthquake, once the institution is done, we should move up smartly, and quickly. Jay

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10903)	5/9/2000 6:47:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Aus, when the stock could not hold above $88 recently, it "technically" violated it new "uptrend", that does not explain why it did this. Part of it , I believe is current revaluation of future growth. I have $.95 for the current year and $1.45 next year, or a growth rate somewhat in excess of 50% (I have much more growth than the analysts, since I believe that royalties income will accelerate rather than decelerate, I have been wrong in the past and may again). The market is simply going back to more traditional valuations saying that 50 times next years earning for a company growing forward at 50%/year is a "fair value". If it breaks $70 and you ask me again, in frustration, how come? My answer will be that "bear markets create uncommon values". If if gets to within a factor of two of book value, my response will be, "that is a bear market for you". The reason I rely on technical analysis is simply because I am always too late in finding how are the fundamentals of a company changing. I know, like all here that flash is going to grow rapidly, more rapidly than DRAM, that there are shortages and thus no competitive pressures to speak of on prices, and that SNDK should get royalties on some of this expanding markets (as well as profits on their own sales, which should contribute more to the bottom line, because in the last quarter, it was barely break even and any increase in volume should have a higher proportional impact on the bottom line). All these I know, but if I, the mushroom kept in the dark and fed S$$t, already know that, who does not? Thus there must be some knowledge in the market, knowledge of a fundamental nature that is affecting the price. May be some insiders are "diversifying". Maybe the new capacity negotiated does not leave sufficient gross margins (because the tightness foundry capacity gives the foundries leverage), and thus, maybe, my earnings estimates are off. Maybe there some write off that need to be taken (like option related comp as RMBS had to take?) Others like AMD or even SSTI were suffering in the same manner, I would try and guess that a semi peak is approaching, but both have made new highs recently, so there must be either a complete ignorance on the part of Mr. Market, or on our part. I for one am going to guess that I am smarter than Mr. Market (a very dangerous thing to do, but it worked for me April 17), and start and lay my bet on SNDK pretty soon. But recognizing that in the long run, MR. market is smarter than I am, I mat take a very fast loss if we breach the $70 area on a closing basis by more than a certain percentage. That is the way I play it, because I do not have the depth of convictions you have, nor, for that matter, am I enamored with this or any other stock. Zeev