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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 7:45:00 PM
From: GST  Respond to of 164684
 
William: The next 50 basis points is in the market - the issue is what happens after that -- another 50 basis points? And after that? A 2 year note above 7% is going to spell serious trouble for stocks. That is why the pros are holding on to their cash IMO.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 7:47:00 PM
From: H James Morris  Respond to of 164684
 
Billy, I never knew eBay had a transaction, selling a Picasso for just under $2mil last year.
Btw
Do you list yourself on eBay as "golfpoorly"?
Short eBay with max pain of 159.These aren't idiots on eBay they're addicts.
>NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE

May 9, 2000

On April 28, a California man who uses the handle "golfpoorly" put a half-dozen items up for sale on eBay, the online auction company. Along with an unopened roll of twine, a never inflated basketball, a Mexican voodoo mask, a Netgear network card and a pewter frame, he offered a "great big wild abstract painting" that he said was bought years ago at a garage sale in Berkeley and has a small hole inflicted by a son wielding a plastic tricycle.

The opening bid for each of the items was a quarter.

By last night, after 95 offers, bidding for the painting -- which on a computer screen looks vaguely like a landscape swathed in red, orange and a pinkish accent -- had soared to $135,805. When the auction closed at 6:49 p.m., a man named Rob Keereweer in the Netherlands was the high bidder
.

The unusual run-up was fueled by speculation that the painting might be a 1952 work by Richard Diebenkorn, the California painter known for his sublime use of color in abstract and representational works.

The six-figure sale is not only one of the highest prices paid online for art, it is also a powerful testimony to the ability of the Internet to ignite a sales frenzy, even for expensive items that may or may not be what people think they are.

"I'm still astonished that anyone would pay that much for something they hadn't seen," said John Elderfield, the chief curator at the Museum of Modern Art in New York and an expert on Diebenkorn.

A painting by Diebenkorn, who died in 1993, could be worth millions. The record price at auction was set in November 1998, when his 1959 painting "Horizon: Ocean Park" sold at Sotheby's for $3.9 million.

But eBay does not vouch for the authenticity of anything people sell on its site. It considers the deals to be private transactions. And, for now at least, no one knows for sure whether "golfpoorly's" painting is by Diebenkorn.

"The palette is right, and the signature is right on," said Will Ameringer, a New York dealer who has sold works by Diebenkorn. "It's either a good fake or the real thing." Other experts agreed, but they and Ameringer said they could not give definitive opinions about its authenticity without seeing the painting.

Which is impossible.

Michael Kaiser, a private art dealer in Medford, Ore., bid the painting up to $128,600 on Sunday but then changed his mind. He withdrew his offer after the seller, who, according to Kaiser, is a lawyer who lives in the Sacramento area, refused to let him see the painting. "It made me suspicious when he would not let me see it when I'm making the effort to drive five hours down there," said Kaiser, who added that he "buys a lot of art online."

"Golfpoorly," responding to an e-mail message, declined to comment, citing the advice of his lawyer, the possibility of theft and tax consequences. He signed the message "Ken." The name associated with the e-mail address is K.A. Walton, and a phone message left at the home of Kenneth Walton in Sacramento was not returned. That left open questions, including why he did not withdraw the painting once people began attributing it to Diebenkorn in favor of selling it through the established art market, where it could presumably attract a much higher price.

But "golfpoorly" told his story of the painting online when he put it up for sale. He bought it, he said, before he got married. "My wife has never let me keep it in the house," he explained -- though he "always kind of liked it" -- so he decided to sell.

"Golfpoorly" said the painting was 2 feet 11 inches by 3 feet 11 inches, and noted that the hole was about an inch and a quarter long and "would be easy to fix with duct tape."

He never said it was a Diebenkorn, but along with a picture of the entire painting -- incorrectly oriented vertically, which he noted in his posting -- he posted a close-up of the hole. The signature, "R.D. '52," was easily discernible in the close-up, and it stirred up the interest and skepticism as well.

In the early '50s, Diebenkorn made a series of abstract works in successive locations for which the cycles are named -- Albuquerque, N.M., Urbana, Ill., and Berkeley. The Berkeley series began around 1953, so an unknown 1952 work would not be unreasonable. The colors in "golfpoorly's" painting match those Diebenkorn used in his Berkeley series.

A Berkeley painting from 1955 sold for $1.8 million at Sotheby's in May 1998, and others have sold privately for about $1 million, dealers said.

"Golfpoorly" said he was surprised by all the fuss. On Sunday, he added information to the eBay posting that apologized for not answering all the inquiries he had and said, "We're freaked out by all of this, and because of the high price this painting is going for (WOW!!!!) I contacted an attorney." The posting continued, "This painting is sold in the same manner as the other items I am selling on eBay, and requires full payment within 7 days of the auction, in advance of delivery to the buyer, and is sold as described in the auction description, without representation as to authorship or authenticity."

"Golfpoorly" has sold items on eBay before, and those who have bought from him rate him well. On his eBay ID card, 13 people rated him highly. "Charged me less for shipping than he quoted," wrote one whose handle is "cheesesix." "A really nice guy." Another, a self-employed, self-described computer geek in Los Angeles who claims to buy online all the time, said the espresso machine he bought from "golfpoorly" for about $280 was "very good and honestly described."

Such testimonials undoubtedly enhance his credibility, but they are hardly relevant to whether this painting is an authentic Diebenkorn.

As online auctions have gathered force in the past few years, numerous sites have begun to offer art. Those related to the art world usually have some standards. Artnet.com, for example, says that "All lots have been vetted by reputable dealers and compared with existing auction results," while Sotheby's guarantees the authenticity of works it sells on both sothebys.com and sothebys.amazon.com.

According to Art and Auction magazine, the highest price on an art site transaction was $168,000 for a 1959 watercolor by Lucio Fontana, which sold on artnet.com in 1999.

EBay does not keep track of transactions -- there were more than 53 million listings in the last quarter alone, a spokesman said -- but it believes that a Picasso sold for just under $2 million last year.

As for "golfpoorly," his other five auction items fetched a total of $43.75
.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 9:13:00 PM
From: fedhead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Hi

I agree. What are the fed future funds indicating for
beyond MAy. IS there a link for the future funds rate ?
If this market is anything like 1994 the semiconductors
should be bottoming soon .

Thanks
Anindo



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 9:50:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
William,

Here is a brief look at the number but I am using four quarters combined to save time. This will be from Q2 2000 through Q1 2001.
Numbers in thousands
Revenue $ 3,200,000
Cost of goods sold $3,395,000 (includes inventory markdowns of $175,000, fufillment ceneter, leases, fulfillment payroll, etc.)
Marketing $225,000
General and administrative expense $155,000
Interest income $33,000
Interest Expense $160,000



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 10:40:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 164684
 
will, no way. alan.com is a slave to the markets. thou doth protest too much is what comes to mind every time he yaps about not caring about markets. is that why he surprises the world about a rate cut 15 minutes before options expiration?

1/4 point tops - or i bark like a dog.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/9/2000 10:47:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Respond to of 164684
 
I think you're right on .5 William.
Victor



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (103088)5/10/2000 1:17:00 AM
From: Libbyt  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
CMRC....

fool.com


Stocks for Mom
Commerce One

By David Forrest (TMF Bogey)
May 9, 2000

Trading at $51 1/16 as of May 8, 2000

Dear Mom,

One thing I know for certain is that you love a good sale. Remember that neon yellow Izod and those
lime green Dickies you bought me when I was 10 years old? How about the time when you stocked
up on every kid's breakfast dream, Mini-Wheats cereal? That was a great sale, huh?

Well, it's time for me to return the favor. I know that the stock market's recent ups and downs have
made you a bit queasy, but whenever that happens it creates an opportunity to buy some good
companies on the cheap, just like those Mini-Wheats.

One company whose stock price has fallen hard in the short term is a company called Commerce
One (Nasdaq: CMRC) .

Business: Mom, Commerce One is one of those "B2B" stocks that you hear the talking heads
squawk so much about on the television. B2B is just an abbreviation for "business to business." In the
past six months to a year, there has been an incredible interest in any company that is involved in
B2B. What's all the fuss about?

Quite simply, the world is waking up to the idea that businesses can sell products to one another on
the Internet. Big whoop, right? After all, this isn't something new, is it? Businesses have been selling
products and services to one another for a long time. The cool part is that in the physical world
companies aren't able to efficiently meet all together in one marketplace and showcase their products
for sale with one another like they can on the Internet.

Here is a quote from Commerce One's website explaining the efficiencies gained by trading online.
Referring to the automotive market, a General Motors (NYSE: GM) executive writes: "According
to industry figures, it costs approximately $100 to process and manage a purchase order through
conventional means. By processing purchase orders via the Internet, the cost can be reduced to
around $10 per order."

The Internet allows many similar companies to come together like never before so they can sell stuff
to one another quickly and easily. To give you an example, automobile companies General Motors,
Ford (NYSE: F) and DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) all got together and set up an automotive
exchange on the Internet that allows them to sell auto parts and other car-related things to one
another.

So, if Ford needs to buy 2,000 radiators, it can go to this exchange, see what is being offered, and
buy the parts online -- just like you buy books. All of the auto manufacturers love this because it
saves them time and money and helps them better control their inventory and their production of new
cars. It's going to save them millions and millions of dollars over time.

OK, you're probably asking yourself at this point, "David, what the heck does any of this have to do
with Commerce One?" Very simply, someone has to build the virtual trading exchanges for these
large industrial companies to do business over the Web. Commerce One specializes in building
trading exchanges.

Using our example above, Commerce One will sell special software to GM, Ford, and
DaimlerChrysler (and every other participant in the auto exchange) so that they can conduct business.
This software is pretty expensive and a good source of sales for Commerce One. The great thing for
Commerce One is that the companies simply cannot do business without the software, so they all
have to pay. They also have to pay as upgrades get made to the software and the exchanges become
even better.

Mom, as exciting as the software sales are for Commerce One, that's not the really compelling part
of their business to me. Can you say "transaction revenue"? In the exchanges that Commerce One
has set up so far, it has negotiated the deals so that it gets some slice of every single product sold.
So, if the auto exchange trades $100-billion worth of products in a given year, Commerce One will
share in that revenue. As more and more companies come online to participate in these virtual trading
exchanges, the amount of business transacted grows and grows. All of this is great for Commerce
One because it gets a piece of the pie.

It gets a little more complicated than this, but you get the basic idea. If this is interesting to you, we
can always continue the conversation about how the company generates transaction revenue on the
Commerce One discussion board. There is an active discussion about Commerce One there with
some great contributions from Goldmund33, AcesWild, Benning, and other folks.

Keys to Success: In order for Commerce One to continue to be successful, it needs to continue
striking deals with big companies to build these exchanges. It also needs to continue negotiating
transaction revenue in every deal that it does. Finally, it needs to continue to offer great service by
developing great software and responding very quickly to the needs of its customers. So far, things
look encouraging to me. In the past year, Commerce One has struck the following deals:

1.Automotive exchange with GM -- This is what we talked about above.

2.Aerospace exchange with Boeing -- This is even bigger in actual transaction revenue than the
auto exchange and what I consider to be the biggest feather in Commerce One's cap thus far.

3.Petroleum exchange with Royal Dutch/Shell -- Royal Dutch has been joined by at least 14
other major oil companies from around the world, including British Petroleum.

There are many other smaller deals that Commerce One has struck, but these are three of the largest.
I think it would be a good idea for you to visit the company's website to see all of the customers it
has.

Risks: There are always lots of risks with any new business, and Commerce One is definitely a new
business. Lots and lots of companies are trying to do exactly what Commerce One is doing, including
biggies like Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and some very tenacious youngsters like Ariba (Nasdaq:
ARBA) and i2 (Nasdaq: ITWO) . In fact, Oracle is also one of the providers in the auto exchange
with Commerce One, and the scuttlebutt is that these folks aren't wild about one another.

This is an intensely competitive business and Commerce One cannot make mistakes. If it is not able
to negotiate decent transaction revenue in every deal it does, things could get ugly. The company
currently has an $8-billion market capitalization with only $66 million in sales. It will not thrive on
software sales alone. Transaction revenue is an absolute must.

The Numbers: Commerce One is growing very, very quickly. Its year-over-year sales growth rate
is explosive at about 1,500%. Clearly this pace won't continue, but analysts expect this year's sales
to be in the $220-million range and next year's to be around $400 million. That's impressive growth
and explains why the company's market capitalization is at $8 billion.

Commerce One is in excellent financial health with $97 million in cash and inconsequential
($129,000) long-term debt. It's not yet known how much revenue it will take in from transactions,
and this probably won't be significant until the end of this year. On the earnings front, Commerce One
is currently losing money because it is spending a lot of cash to build up the business now so it can
reap the benefits later on. I don't mind that it isn't profitable so long as it continues to keep a nice
cash pile and no debt.

Conclusion: Make no mistake, Commerce One is as risky as the stock I told you about last year,
Metromedia Fiber Network (Nasdaq: MFNX) . It's a small company in a new industry, and it has
significant challenges ahead of it as a business. That said, it has done an absolutely outstanding job of
signing some of the largest B2B exchanges in existence. I believe that these deals will give other large
companies the confidence in Commerce One to strike equally large deals and that it will continue to
get big contract wins.

The stock price at the time of this writing is $55 1/2, about 1/3 of where it was at the high last year.
The recent downdraft in the Nasdaq has caused many of the B2B stocks to fall sharply. In
Commerce One's case, I think the market has thrown the baby out with the bath water.

Mom, as always, please make sure you do your own research and don't just buy this stock because I
like it. As you know, I'm far from perfect. To help you get started on that research road, I've built a
little Commerce One "tour" for you. Just click the following link and you'll be taken on a cool tour of
some Web pages that I picked out for you to learn more about this company.

Commerce One Cool Fool Tour

Love always,

David

Commerce One Company Information:
Trades on Nasdaq under symbol CMRC
Website: www.commerceone.com