To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (65931 ) 5/10/2000 3:56:00 AM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
Freeway: - re: "where I've been"... I've been trading - covered 5-7 swing shorts in tech - when I'm short, I keep my eye's glued to the tape & don't do much posting. Today, I covered and started going long in tech with initial entry positions on the long side. I'll start averaging down with a target of being fully into my tech positions at a 3000-3250 bottom if seen. I'll be margined there at 3000, unless we see a high volume meltdown off of the Fed Hike - which I don't expect as we are merely, very rationally selling off as a hedging bet here - on low volume, on a very positive - well controlled basis imo. All this bodes well for another major bounce rally off the Fed Hike. There are a hell of a lot of shorts here and puts that will be closed out shortly - I want to be on the longside there (VBG). In the Oilpatch - I've been pounding the table on selling the mo-mo breakout plays and rotating to the laggards and value like - FLC PGO CXIPY - caught a nice little breakout in THX, I really like NEV here, in from the $17's on the dip on 5/4. Selling some FLC slowly into it's strength here on each $3 move up, PGO starts to go at $20,22 & $24. Cxipy is gone allready. I'll buy them all back on pullbacks. FLC is THE play and will remain so thru year end, PGO still has 50%+ upside thru year end as well. Laggards with strong fundamentals here will outperform. re:siliconinvestor.com I may end up over 60% tech here temporarilly - looking to leverage another bounce rally off of the Fed Hike & the really very positive earnings picture. Then hope to re-weight to 65:35 Oilpatch to Tech. May nibble in financials if they selloff on the Fed Hike as well for a 10-15%ish position. People don't realize that stocks like WM could still post $3.35 eps with another 1.00% total rate hike, or $3.90 with just .50 thru year end. Even in a worst case rate hike scenario - financials are STILL cheap (PE's of 6-10 abound with dividends on most to boot!).Financials are and will continue to show strong earnings. That's why we've seen nibbling in the financials here - which have held fairly well going into this Fed Meeting. The Financials will be a 50% upside sector with a few potential doubles in small-mid cap S&L and Banks stocks. Doing well trading... I think there is tremendous opportunity for some major, major moves in tech here shortly. Just like the original blow off - where many stocks rallied 40-50% from their lows; there will be margined doubles. There are some "easy" trades like VTSS, CMGI - both will run from $50ish back to $70ish for 40% (80% margined)bounces. I'm loading the boat on VTSS $52ish and under here, will average in ea $3 down @49,46 if seen; but $50 may hold as its bottom. Trolling for - VTSS NTAP RFMD FDRY JNPR CMGI & love the broadband network builders - FTHL VYTL RCNC - like Euro Wireless King - VOD, like DSL player COVD, bandwidth mgmt play with PKTR, still like GMST from mid-upper $30's and a few others. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAZ just do a double bottom re-test of 3250ish into, or off of the Fed Hike and then run thru 4000 on the next rally leg. I will use tight stops on tech if we near 3250ish, I'll ride a bounce down to 3000ish, but not lower. I think maybe we only get another 10% pullback here in tech. The pullback in the Oilpatch could be only 10%ish and mainly from profit taking and using the Oilpatch profit taking as currency to return to tech & the DOW stocks. Going to be an interesting week... Good Luck all PS - AHC KMG COC all look like a safe conservative place to park cash from profit taking - all have great earnings visibility going forward and lots of price upside. This sector has NOT yet participated - it will.