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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SBerglowe who wrote (50059)	5/9/2000 11:12:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Susan, indeed, that is the case. the truth is that no-one really knows whether the bull has another big leg higher left or not. but the possibility of a secular 'supercycle' multi year bear market beginning at some point can not be dismissed by serious students of market history. in fact, when you look at the tail-end of previous secular bull markets of significant extent and duration, you will notice that at the time they were about to end no-one believed they might be ending. my attitude is one of wait and see in this instance. when the market approaches, or 'tests' recent lows, we will soon know whether they hold or not. good night, hb

To: SBerglowe who wrote (50059)	5/9/2000 11:50:00 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Susan I have coined this bull market as the 'Big Easy'. Almost every investor with money in the stock market since 1988 has come across the big easy. The big easy is a form of artificial intelligence (false intelligence) one rationalizes from big stock gains and little market experience. It has been the big 'ugly' to conservative money over the last five years, making even the strongest voices weak in recent years. I will not believe the big easy is over until we BREAK THROUGH the old April lows on strong volume. Then a rally from those lows to about NASD 3800, by which time the financial community will have reports fearing the Fed went too far, not far enough, not fast enough, etc. and the ultimate confidence in Greenspan is put in check. Depending on when the inflation bomb really hits, will be the end of the big easy. Term limits on Fed Chairman may indeed be one of many lessons learned from this bubble. jmootx

To: SBerglowe who wrote (50059)	5/9/2000 11:52:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>The belief is that we are awash in a sea of liquidity and that money must by its very nature find its way into stocks.<<< Susan, that idea is a popular delusion, the mcCllellan's use the oscillator and the summation index as a measure of liquidity entering the market (unfortunately, they as all top analysts are bullish at the top, just like all the wsw elves -g-) the weakness in the summation index is a sign of a lack of liquidity entering the market, this index peaked in 1997. i was just going over the bond charts, the five year note and the 30 year note just ran it stiff resistance areas and are very oversold, the 3 month bill gapped to a new high. on 4/11 (which lead into the 14th crash) we had a one day mini-yield inversion of the 3 month bill and the 30 year bond. as of today we are at 59.6 on the 3 month, and about 6.2% on the 30 year, watch these yields closely. i hate when oj goes bearish and i'm short -g- (maybe this time is different -g-) b