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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (23065)	5/10/2000 12:35:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 42787

Well I am getting ove sold signals on many NASDAQ stocks already and I am real close to a buy on teh NASDAQ itself, probably tomorrow night or Thursday so I am inclined to be expecting a rotation from DOW to Tech. I am actually looking at some issues as long plays here. Of course maybe I am a contrarian indicator. -ggg- I show most of teh DOW stocks ready to fall which should drag the index down with it but then I show the Techs over sold so I think the money will rotate there probably. The only DOW stocks not ready to drop I saw were the weak ones in this last ramp up like T, EK, etc. Most of teh rest are all sells in my play book. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't have the index looking that bad but if the stocks that make up the index are primed to fall, teh index has to follow. Techs on teh other hand are showing signs of a bounce soon possibly. Volume did pick up on many of teh ones that dropped hard like EMC but that could have been stops getitng hit. Probably too early to call for sure but I think the fact that they kept bouncing when the TICK would let up a litle was a sign that there is still strength here. I think as long as SUNW, PMCS, EMC, CSCO, AMAT, INTC etc can stay above their April lows, we are OK. I am a bit worried about AMAT's chart though. Good Thing they report earnings tomorrow. They are about to violate a fork tine they never break unless the NASDAQ is getting it's clock cleaned. I think AMAT's earnings may prove more important than CSCO's. No one doubted that CSCO would beat by a penny as tehy have the last 9 times. The question is how they make thier numbers. I noticed the quality dropped in their earnings last year when I was sweating holding calls after a release. I still remember praying all night that no one would dig into the statement until after I unloaded my holdings. Of course, I always over estimate the mentality of the street and they are just now starting to figure it all out a year later. ( Yes, I could have retired had I held those calls instead of being so "smart" <ggg>) I am watching Asia tanking right now but I think we are leading not following unlike a couple years ago so no sweat there. GLOBEX triggers are biased for an up open. We just need to hold it for once. I actually am considering heavily buying tomorrow. I was going to buy today but my real job interfered with my market strategy, I hate when that happens. The one I am pretty sure I will do is very risky. Sitting right at support and if it fails, it will probably fall like a rock. If it bounces though, then.... ALso just to be clear, I will NOT be buying options for once. This market environment is for stock as far as I am concerned as I don't think anyone knows where we are heading. I would sleep better if the TRIN hadn't been over 1 all day. I noticed yo uasked about how we use those indicators. I use the simple minded approach. TRIN less than 1, accumulation ( Actually I prefer under .7) Over 1 and they are selling into strength in a rally or just dumping in a decline. As far as TICK, I only pay attention to it when I am day trading and I use a 12 minute bar and look at teh trend. If it is climbing, I play long side scalps, if it is declining , I trade short side scalps. As it approaches bottoms or tops, it will often reverse hard to start a new beggining for a trend in the same direction. I take advantage of those spikes to initiate new positions as I believe that is what the big money is doing. They ramp it up to get new shorts on or in an uptrend, the dump to push prices down mopmentarily to get better entries. Good Luck, Lee

To: Chris who wrote (23065)	5/11/2000 2:45:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Chris, I think the key for teh next coupe days is if GE can hold the 200 EMA. It has always held except in teh most serious of selloffs. If that breaks ( I show it at 46), this time may be different. Otherwise, I am buying tomorrow. I didn't like any of my watch list stocks tonight so I will either catch a falling knive or else just buy QQQ. Haven't decided and I am getting too tired to make up my mind now. As I recall without looking, I think the 75 area was what I expected for tomorrow on it. Good Luck, Lee PS - Dennis, I tried to write you but my mail is down. I will try again tomorrow in the AM. I am turning in now. If it is still down, I will just PM it to you.