To: mishedlo who wrote (41919 ) 5/10/2000 1:40:00 AM From: Bilow Respond to
Hi mishedlo; You wrote: "Once again bilow you are talking 3 months out. What is it with you guys anyway? DDR is always so so far off. Where is that motherboard? How far off is it? Next year? Two years from now, or NEVER? "Sales of memory in 2001 are largely determined by design wins in 1999. Rambus died in mid 1999. You won't see product from early 1999 design wins until 2000, so you will see new products coming out that use Rambus. But that is a lagging indicator. The leading indicator is what design engineers are doing right now, and they know that Rambus is dead. Nintendo is just the tip of the iceberg. The vast majority of memory design wins go unmentioned in the press. The loss of the most important Rambus customer should indicate to even the most hopeful long that the technology is dead. You'll see the DDR-II when the design wins it is picking up start shipping. The Hyundai guy is speaking the truth. Memory is going over to DDR. Intel lost. Rambus is quite dead. The company will remain, but the royalties are going to dry up, probably within 5 years, though the trend will be quite obvious by the end of next year , [i.e. end of 2000]Hi dpk; As long readers of this thread are no doubt well aware, I believe that Rambus, as a dynamic technology for the future is dead, dead, dead. In fact, I've posted to that effect many times, complete with extensive links to articles in EE-Times. I still think that the technology isn't getting much in the way of new design wins (which is distinct from design win announcements, in that design wins come first), all we see now are the spasmodic involuntary movements of the technology's death throes. I know that memory designers are running away from this technology about as fast as they can, and I base my knowledge of the subject on the fact that I design memory for a living (when I'm not trading). I am not saying that there will be no shipments of product containing it. What I am saying is that new design wins are not happening. I am not saying that the manufacturers have stopped pushing the technology, only that the design engineers are not seriously considering it anymore. Thanks for the wish for savory satisfaction, I have already taken a good bit of it, and I expect to get a good bit more of it by this next summer [i.e. summer 2000] But new design wins in that market are going to specialized application specific DRAMs such as 32-bit wide DDR SDRAMs. Rambus is frozen out of that industry. Re graphics memory requirements... I would think that the Rambus people would let this sleeping dog lie, given that the DDR x32 SGRAMs, along with embedded, have pretty much cleaned Rambus out of new design wins in this area for some time.
