To: Boplicity who wrote (10120 ) 5/10/2000 12:46:00 AM From: djia101362 Respond to of 24042
Greg, I share the same concerns that you do but something tells me that this won't last as long as most think. Well, actually it's lasted much too long already if you ask me. Everything I read says this will last for months to come but history tells us that bull markets last much longer than bear markets. I firmly believe we have been in a bear market since mid March. In the new Internet Era that we are in, things happen alot faster than they used to 5 years ago. This bear market would have last 6 mos. 5 years ago and maybe longer...I'm giving this bear till the end of May at most. The only problem is that this market can do alot of damage in that time. Summers have been traditionally weak for tech but I think this summer will be different. I think the last month has been more devastating to individual investors than most people realize. Many people have been literally "wiped out" and had to close their accounts. We will not see these investors for a long time if ever again. I think we need to get used to this light volume stuff. Light volume will become the norm rather than the exception. The pros keep calling it light volume cause they keep comparing it to the crazy months of Dec-Mar. I bet if you compare today's volume to the volume we had last May, it would be alot closer. The fact is there just isn't the same amount of money out there to buy stocks. I'm sure this market has nowhere near the firepower to re-create a naz rally like we saw last December. But I think there is still enough money to generate superior returns if you invest in superior companies. The dotcom money is dead...those stocks will be tradable but I'd hardly consider them investments right now. I think if you stick w/ solid growth like JDSU, QCOM, BRCM, NTAP, PMCS, these companies will all be fine will become the leaders of the new economy. Superior companies will always be awarded higher P/Es, CSCO and MSFT have proven that for years and I don't expect that to change.