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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (50114)	5/10/2000 11:47:00 AM
From: kami	Respond to of 99985

marginmike.. thanks for your very polite reply! CNBC is actually bearish! Who cares. I understand your feeling from reading your previous posts. Market is a mixture of economical fundamentals coated with fear & greed. I am personally going long today and next couple days and sell into summer rally when you feel better and bullish. good luck!

To: marginmike who wrote (50114)	5/10/2000 12:47:00 PM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 99985

I find it most amazing that people can be as sure as you are of a goodbye party for Nasdaq. But then again i am just as sure in the opposite direction<gggg> Here are my reasons. 3360 +/- 40 is the bounce point and a double bottom will be formed, yes there will be continual readjustment to over valued stocks, but Nas will adjust their "weighted ratio" so as not to impact the numbers. There is in excess of 1 trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines. Numerous mutual funds have been bragging about their 80-95% cash positions. These funds receive "tax concessions" from their governments assuming a certain percentage invested. Many of these funds have failed to meet these objectives. It is more than coincidence that the brokerage industry is doing its best to court the funds back into using them for their buying. (Funds have migrated to instinet and are avoiding heavy brokerage fees.) Brokerages can now "strategically" issue downgrades to stocks and demonstrate to the funds that they can get them in the market "on the cheap". This was demonstarted with the recent downgrades of the appropriate Naz top 10 at precisely the worst time but the best time for the worst impact on the Naz numbers.(did I really say that<gggg>) They continue this process by "delaying" there downgrades to kick the market, everytime it tries to get up. The process allows; a) the technicians to be happy with the double bottom b) the funds to get in cheap (no doubt paying the appropriate brokerages by placing their orders thru them) c) Greenspan to reconsider the .5% rate hike d) the removal of the last "poor" daytraders from the market, back to the brokerages for money management (how coincidental) e) the realignment of multiples without brokerages having to say "yes we got stupid too" So my call is that this downdraft on low volume is bullish, it was fabricated by the analysts/brokerages to accomodate their own funds buying low, and flushing out the "fraidy cats" or attempting to cause investor capitulation. The technicians will start saying the worst is over and the market will conslidate at 3400 for the next few days waiting for his "nibs" Greenspan to say anything!! Even if "anything" is a .5% rate increase, the market will ralley, because "its over" attitude will creap in. In the meantime analysts will start "pumping" the stocks you sold during the investor capitulation phase back to you at a premium!! i love the market!! Great thread too! the Chief