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Technology Stocks : Cisco -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mwj6 who wrote (29)	5/10/2000 2:51:00 PM
From: mwj6	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 405

A long term investor should use something like a Point & Figure trend line...right now, based on that I don't get concerned until CSCO violates it at $50. by the way, NT violated their long-term P&F trend line today...if you want to hedge CSCO in a bear market, short NT. LU already crushed their trend line last December. All the start-ups that CSCO competes with, except JNPR, broke through their trend lines in april. My theory is those that don't break the long term trend line will return to leadership faster when the market turns. The others will have to fight through the down trend line to turn. this new thread is liberating. ;-) /matt

To: mwj6 who wrote (29)	5/10/2000 3:08:00 PM
From: MCF	Respond to of 405

I agree,I have been invested with Cisco since 1995,it's a great stock.What's gonna happen? Are we going to wake up tomorrow and find that Alcatel/Lucent/Nortel now own the router space? Is the IT going to stop it's growth? Is there no longer going to be a need for high bandwidth in the IT infrastructure? Cisco has two major strenghts against it's competition: They purchase IP with stock,as opposed to having to borrow cash.-So do the other players:) 1.Their business model is world class. Their inventory level of $8XXM is nothing compared to almost $5B in revenue for the quarter. Their model forces suppliers/contract manufacturers to carry the short term inventory cost. 2.When they purchase a company,they can absorb it into their product line,retain valuable technical resources and turn the IP into cash flow in less than 120 days.If you can imagine/compare that to a Lucent/Nortel/Alcatel...they would still be holding cross functional meetings to determine how they should best "fit" Cerent into their strategic product plans:) The entire tech sector flew too close to the Sun in 1999.It's payback time:( We all have lost a fortune in paper equity over the last couple of months.It's a real bummer:) But the glass is either half empty or half full. My Jan 1999 portfolio is still yielding over 70%,that ain't too shabby:) Either we believe the stuff we have been smokin over the last couple of years or we don't.What should we do?Buy gold /real estate or Sears & Robuck...nah it's time to dig in and do the nasty! Cisco works, it's been a major contributor to my portfolio and it is going to enable me to retire. If a had any backbone, I would margin myself to my eyeballs on it. Surf@60