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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lu_Xun who wrote (12527)	5/10/2000 3:04:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29986

And that's the question nobody can answer right now. Does the future of Globalstar hinge on service quality or does it hinge on market size? If the crucial factor is service quality, Globalstar can succeed. If the crucial issue here is demand - all bets are off. The 1Q numbers did not tell us much about the underlying demand. The case for defence it that the biggest markets were not open for service, so we should not take any notice of the 1Q results. My problem here is the early adapters. Every time Nokia launches a new model, there is a line of geeks placing orders for the phones weeks before the launch. The same thing happens with new Mercedes cars, new Hollywood blockbusters - just about any product. There was enough awareness of Globalstar for that to happen in early markets; it did not. Yes - most of the most promising markets were not open for business during 1Q. But I would have expected some action in USA, France and Italy. These countries are not representative of the international Globalstar market; let's assume that Brazil, Mexico, China and Australia are the big hits. But I think the early numbers told us something - they told us about the pent-up demand in about 40 markets, ranging from Malta to USA to Finland. I think that Italy and France reflect the demand in all European countries. And I don't think that there is any demand in most of these markets. So we're back to 4-6 heavy-hitters - none of which are allowed to miss now. But Russia is so very different from China as a telecom market. And Brazil and Australia are so very different from either - and each other. So what I can't believe is that Globalstar can succeed in all of these four. And without solid sales in USA and Europe, it can't afford to strike out in any of them. And that's the problem with the risk/reward ratio. In my opinion, the risk has ramped up even more steeply than the reward. Of course the potential reward from investing in GSTRF is now many times higher than it was a couple of months ago. Tero