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To: BigBull who wrote (66001)	5/10/2000 7:58:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Bull - the OSX is holding up very well... No arguement with that; it's holding up a bit better than I thought it would "so far" - but; the keyword is "so far." The smart play was to play defense by going to a strong cash position as there was little danger of the OSX/Oilpatch running away from anyone; that is more of a factor than it's potential blow off presenting even better buying opps - that would merely be the icing. Avoiding risk into the face of little reward potential was the smart reason for taking profits here and going to cash. I wasn't making any major point on a relief rally, obviously I think we're going to have one in the overall market. I merely think that it's human & market nature to postpone, or to deny reality - in this case; "reality" being the 75%+ chance of a .50 bp fed hike and the resulting market selloff. I think 70% of the Fed voted for .50 bp at the last meeting and this continual death by a thousand cuts of .25 bp is not getting anyone's attention; "if" that is something the Fed wants to do. If Greenspan however is really in touch; he will just do .50 and then ease market fears by re-assuring the Street that the effect of the prior cuts has yet to really work itself into the system as yet and explain his .50 bp move is probably going to have more effect right here - right now; than a series of 3 more .25 bp hikes over time would have. There is a real danger of the Fed over-doing it here. I am telling you that there is some real pain and fear from retail Auto dealerships, Real Estate Office's, Mortgage Companies etc... Momenteum in these area's just fell off the cliff in middle America. 9.5 - 10% Mortgage rates will not just crush the homebuilding market - it will snuff out a huge Mortgage Refinance Industry that Greenspan has mentioned before as being an underfactored recent phenomena of pumping lots of speculative liquidity into this economy of late. 6 to 10 years ago; this "mindset" of using your home equity as a checking account did not exist. People over the last 3-4 years in this low-rate environment; were refinancing to lower rates and pulling out tons of cash - that was spent on cars, jacuzzi's, home remodeling, clothes, electronics, computers and put into the market. That game is now over and has been brought to a screaching halt here. Very few economists picked up on this phenomena as in essence being the equivalent on a dramtic inflationary pay raise that probably 50% of American's gave themselves over the last few years - and all of that money pulled out of home equity - was spent ! This was a huge windfall into the economy over the last 4 years. Entire companies & the mortgate "refinance" industry were created in the last 5 years here. The corner S&L used to be where people went to finance their homes - now we get 3 telemarketing calls a week and 10 piece of junk mail a month on "refinancing" from companies that did not even exist 5-6 years ago ! Greenspan's comments are actually more important than the Hike itself ; actually all we need is .25 to do the work imho; but .50 is what the market is allmost demanding here and the best case scenario is .50 bp now - and then the stance of a neutral bias going forward. The attitude of many that it was "allready built into the market" is the thing I had a problem with - it clearly wasn't... and still perhaps isn't... All in all; one can not deny the incredible earnings strength of companies here and AMAT's report tonight about increasing cap ex spending 50% above prior plans is bullish as hell for a major Naz bounce here as the market takes in this Fed Hike. Earnings and sequetial revenue growth and forward looking demand is simply too strong for there to be a technology bear - it is NOT even possible as long as so many companies have 50-100% growth - simply impossible...let alone with there being so much cash on the sidelines. Imo, for professional money managers - very soon here; it will once again be a game of "not being able to afford getting left in the starting gates" - on the first sign of a bounce rally in tech. Simply too much money still willing to play - and the earnings and topline revenue momenteum can not be denied. The Fed can't reign in the Naz; they can only stall it a bit... I have absolutely NO doubt that the NAZ is going to break thru 4000 off of this re-test here. I'm sure it will then pullback a bit and then have to earn its way back toward 4500ish and I wouldn't rule out 5000 by year end. OSX isn't breaking out here, but is holding fairly well; but we all know what 1-2 days can do. My point is than many of these companies and the OSX itself can blow off 10-15% in a matter of a couple of days. If the NAZ & DOW continue to melt down tomorrow - I think the OSX follow's very hard. 110 should get some buying but a test of 105ish, or 105ish levels for individual stocks is possible. But, if the market gets crazy - in a total post Fed Hike meltdown - OSX 85ish may make ole Postal into Nostradamus... I am not doubting the underlying strength of the OSX - should see OSX 150 by year end with $2.65+ NG & $22-$25 crude; of which both seem to be in the cards. PS - well it looks like Billary just got elected as the next US Senator from the great State of New York... What the hell was Guilliani thinking here.... he new the dirty laundry was out there - now a divorce off of an affair ? New York could have gotten a real candidate... now we get the Manchurian Candidate by default.... gag me.... Karl Marx & Socialists the world over must be celebrating tonite... but it should do wonders for the Cattle Future's market... Someone tell Rudy - he's toast... it's over...

To: BigBull who wrote (66001)	5/10/2000 8:22:00 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, My time being very limited the rest of the week, I will use securitytrader.com chart targets without first doing my own and then comparing. Here are the various indexes: DOW SYM TRIANGLE BREAKDOWN SUPPORT@ 9725, 9368 NDX BROKEN RISING WEDGE TARGET 3107 (LIKELY) NDX BROKEN NECKLINE H&S TARGET 2247 (POSSIBLE) BKX BROKEN NECKLINE H&S, <50, 200DMA NO TARGET BUT LOWER SYM TRIANGLE LINE AT (approx) 660 SOX BROKEN RISING WEDGE MEASURES TO 880 NAT GAS NOT UPDATED, BUT BROKE MAJOR RESISTANCE@3.275 OSX STILL BULLISH SUPPORT 117 SEE IF IT CAN REVERSE BACK UP XOI STILL BULLISH,OK TODAY COULD BE SETTING UP LARGE INVERSE H&S (emphasize could be, but target would comfortably exceed 99 highs) IIX (You don't want to know) XAU POSSIBLE INVERSE H&S FORMING RESISTANCE 200MA 66 AND 72 1/2, NECKLINE AT 94 Lot of UGLY charts, most indexes and financials look very risky here, charts RED for short or major negative short term, as is most everything else except XOI OSX XAU DOLLAR bullish, AIR neutral, DRUGS and PAPER caution. That's it for tonight, comments in () are mine. Roebear