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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan B. who wrote (4205)5/10/2000 10:06:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5853
 
Mr. Gilder more or less predicted the failure of IRID

That is true. But unfortunately (for those who've followed his advice), he also predicted the success of GlobalStar toward the end of last year--when GSTRF was more than 100% higher than it is now. Gilder's main criticism of Iridium--that it used the evil TDMA system--was mirrored by his main justification for seeing a bright future for GlobalStar: that it uses the Good-Witch-of-the-West CDMA technology. Ignored were such technicalities as market cap (underestimated by a factor of three), coverage area (overestimated by another rotund figure), and subscriber demand (this latter data point showing up on our hope radars only as a trace element). Not yet to the obit stage, but the contrast between the "listen-to-the-technology" hype and the somber reality is worth noting.



To: Dan B. who wrote (4205)5/10/2000 11:51:00 PM
From: OWN STOCK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5853
 
Dan

I'll respond to this post because it is polite. I hope we can strongly disagree without getting too nasty, or too petty. Express yourself, strongly, but then expect it from others too. GG is a public figure, and should expect to find his background and motivations questioned. He is a smart guy, make no mistake about it, I think the guy is near genius.

Capitalism. Good stuff.

GG is a capitalist. So am I. He is not doing the "visionary" thing out of charity. He is charging people for it by selling his books and newsletters, consulting, etc. So it is more than fair to insist that the "product" meet reasonable standards of accuracy, when it comes to quantifiable data. Exaggeration and projection and guess about the future is allowed, and is covered by the good ol' forward looking stuff in the fine print.

Not the present.

Full disclosure: I do have trouble with the details of his political and religious practices, not being in alignment with his professed beliefs. But we all fall short a bit, no? I can forget that stuff, unless severely provoked.

As we say in California: Peace dude!

-Own