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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (35013)	5/10/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

GATEX or Treasuries are both good places right now, Sue. And forthe shorter term, the T bills re better. Scott

To: Susan Saline who wrote (35013)	5/10/2000 10:50:00 PM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Respond to of 43080

April Retail Sales will be out at 8:30 am ET, which will allow market participants an hour to determine whether they believe the data might significantly influence the Federal Reserve's bias on interest rates. The market expects to see that April sales rose 0.5 percent. Smaller increases may ease some of the pressure stocks have experienced this week. Big numbers could turn the heat up, by boosting expectations of a harsh Federal Reserve reaction. Players are nervous about next Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting and have been holding back investments as they try to gauge how aggressive the Fed may become. A majority now seem to feel that a 50 basis point hike in the fed funds rate is likely, but the nature of the FOMC policy statement is still in doubt. Hawkish remarks might hurt markets concerned with the possibility of further aggressive hikes over the summer. So far this week, investor concerns have run deep. Even good earnings news and positive analyst remarks have failed to induce participants to nibble at the bargains created by recent market downside. Both retail and institutional investors seem to be content to hold their cash, until the Fed's position is clarified. That suggests the possibility of further downside, between now and Tuesday. How much further down might we go? If the current corrective phase proceeds according to the usual script, then we should be getting close to near-term bottoms. The mid-April lows were reached quickly, on panic selling. Then we had the traditional rebound. Now, we are in the leisurely descent to test the lows again. Theoretically, we should bounce up from levels above the April lows. Those points are 1.9 percent (Dow), 4.7 percent (Nasdaq) and 3.2 percent (S&P 500) below Wednesday's closing values. There may not be any return of investor confidence, over the next few days, but the prevailing state of fear may begin to diminish. I have read opinions that the FED will raise rates 50 basis points TWO MORE times this year(which is completely unnecessary) to slow the ecomony and contain the market. If so, then until that happens it going to be a month to month guessing game.