Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: inchingup who wrote (66013)	5/11/2000 1:15:00 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

From James Smith at PEI OIL DOESN'T MATTER??? Loads of otherwise intelligent people are spouting the ridiculous idea that oil prices don't matter any more. These were the same people who said oil could not go above $30. Their argument "now" is that since oil represents only 3% of the economy, "it don't matter!" Never mind that fact that oil is used in plastics and all kinds of products spread throughout the economy. These are the same folks who until very recently believed that internet stocks could only go higher. They have undying faith in tech. Sure Fuel Cells will eventually displace OIL, but not now, not even in 5 years. OIL IS A TAX OIL is a tax on the stock mkts. It has not been discounted in the overall mkt. Naive economists who believe oil doesn't matter are misleading investors. Worst affected will be Japan & Europe. Buying oil priced in dollars using a currency that's headed south (the Euro or the Yen) is bound to be painful. BONDS ARE NO SAFE-HAVEN BONDS may experience some sort of flight-to-quality rally as stocks sell off, but this is a very temporary event. See our daily report to confirm key weekly support levels. The risk is that bonds have formed a significant high in April in sync with the Directional Change we have pointed out in our reports. Bond markets globallly are due for a nasty correction. As the Japanese Govt Bond market tumbles, this will cause severe havoc to the Nikkei. THE MONKEY HOLDING A LOADED PISTOL In a previous email I gave the analogy of a "monkey holding a loaded pistol" to describe event risk. With Oil Inventories still near record lows going into Summer, it would appear that motorists driving SUVs or those who still own stocks and bonds, are betting the monkey won't pull the trigger. In that same email I pointed out that our Timing Models were suggesting the Low for oil would probably come in April. Nymex Crude has yet to close a week above our weekly bullish reversal at 30.30 (basis Nymex Crude June) to confirm the Lows are in, but oil is moving higher, now crossing $28.00 level this week. The monkey has his finger on the trigger and he's pointing the gun at your SUV. The LOVE BUG Think of the "lovebug"as a $15 billion tax...with more taxes coming at a faster rate. These taxes may not kill the net, but they will shake out weaker players. The real danger is that rogue states that have no qualms about initiating terrorist actions against US citizens may draw the conclusion that terrorist actions aimed at the internet will be more effective in hurting the US. Is such terrorist action already discounted in the Nasdaq? I think not. KILL TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE If Clinton fails to get the China Trade Bill passed and if Taiwan fails to kowtow to the Communist Mainland,...might Beijing consider terrorist action aimed at the internet?? Taiwan is a high tech economy that depends on the internet as much as the US. If the Chinese were to seriously consider attacking the net, they would no doubt do a whole lot more damage than a 15 year old in Canada or some techie in the Philippines.