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Strategies & Market Trends : NASDAQ SP DJ OEX INDICES TA ONLY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (30)	5/11/2000 6:41:00 AM
From: Topannuity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93

Eliades too making a big deal about the 200 ma, however, he still has one eye on the "crash" possibility... Stockmarket Cycles update for Wednesday May 10th. We should find out very soon whether there is some fun in store for the bears. The crash pattern the we have been following for the Nasdaq Composite remains intact after today's stock market action . We told you yesterday that a Nasdaq Composite close today below 3340 would confirm lower projections - significantly lower projections -for the Nasdaq Composite . Today's Nasdaq Composite close of 3,384.70 did not miss by much, and now tomorrow, any sideways to down close on the Nasdaq Composite will confirm the nominal 40 week downside projection to 2,445.70 ñ 300 points . Several important market indices are now either at or just below their 200 day moving averages. For example, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 3385, and its 200 day moving average closed at 3582. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 3,245.40, and its 200 day moving average closed at 3252. The S&P 500 index today close just below its simple 200 day moving average, but the prior recent history shows that several bottoms over the past few months have occurred just as the S&P cash index closed below its 200 day moving average. For example on April 14th, March 14th, March 7th, and for the six days from February 18th to February 28th, the S&P cash index closed below its 200 day moving average. All those time periods were short-term market bottoms. Obviously, many investors are thinking the same thing will happen here. That is, of course, possible, but it is also quite unlikely based on our own technical readings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been below its own 200 day moving average since April 28th, a period of almost two weeks. Today, the McClellan oscillator moved further into negative territory with a reading of minus 77. Trading Index readings have started to move into oversold territory , but if we are to see a crash-like scenario , oversold readings will get far more extreme than they are today . We explained to you on Monday's update that May 12th is the 49 calendar day after the all time high on the Nasdaq 100 , and that the 49th day represents the Gann death zone . The implication is that a break below the April 14th to April 17th panic lows on the Nasdaq 100 might occur around the May 12th date . Actually , in 1929 and in 1987, a false break of the lows occurred within one day of the 49th day , but it was followed by a sharp rally that probably led most people to believe the lows had been successfully tested. We would not be surprised to see a similar occurrence here , in other words an apparent successful test of the April lows or a brief penetration on the Nasdaq 100 followed by a sharp rally attempt. But if the 1929 and 1987 analogy is to continue, the success of the test will be very short-lived. By Monday of next week, at the latest, there should be a very obvious break of the April lows.

To: John Pitera who wrote (30)	5/12/2000 7:50:00 PM
From: IndexTrader	Respond to of 93

John, Just a few thoughts on T Theory. I like it because it is simple. ttheory.com He feels the advance can only last as long as the previous cash buildup and he uses lots of different timeframes. ttheory.com These charts are pretty old, but you get the idea. He uses the AD line and an AD oscillator to measure the consolidation phase. The right side of the T is where the $ is made. For this time frame, all the T's have run out and until the AD line makes a bottom, no new T's are possible. He does lots of other studies and posts them to his site....interesting guy. See you after the weekend. Susan