To: tahoe_bound who wrote (19074 ) 5/11/2000 9:54:00 AM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 28311
Tahoe, Agree with most of your first paragraph. However, technicals DO MATTER in determining potential support levels. It provides a ready template as to where buying pressure will come in as investors look for lower risk price levels at which to catch the inevitable bounce. And you're right that the VIX doesn't yet seem to indicate that capitulation has been reached in the overall market. The put/call ratio also confirms that relative lack of fear indicative of more downside to come. There is little doubt in my mind that this correction will not be quickly repaired, and could require the rest of this year to consolidate properly (great trading opportunity in a range bound market). I understand your pain about oil service stocks. The longer term trend is more positive for that market so long as oil stays in the $25/barrel range for the intermediate to long-term future making exploration and exploitation worth the major capital expenditures required. But short term the oil index is overbought and is usually the last sector taken out in a bear market (according to my reliable source... You guys don't actually believe I'm generating all of these thoughts on my own, d'ya??.. :0) As for GNET specific, from the weekly chart it would appear that we are in the process of filling the gap-up that formed right after PA became involved in the company:siliconinvestor.com That gap shows a couple of spikes at $36, but I don't believe that is the support level. I think we're now looking at a test of $30, and maybe slightly lower if we overshoot on a panic sell-out. It is feasible that we could touch the $20/share level if this market really freaks out and throws the baby out with the bath water, but that would like be a very rapid move both down and back up (maybe setting up a VERY FIRM hammer reversal. The old bull market is over, and the bear has come out of hibernation temporarily. But as we approach the next quarterly tranche of pension fund money this summer, the money will have to find a home and most Americans will not be opting to buy bonds... They will buy stocks. Money flow into this market from the baby-boomer generation is a demographic factor of this market that probably ensures we won't see a market top until 2005-2010. Regards, Ron