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To: The Prophet who wrote (42006)	5/11/2000 3:09:00 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Prophet, Interesting dynamic: if INTC is committing heavily to RDRAM, as evidenced by Willamette, Timna, and the 820 recall (they could have gone 815 if they so chose), then the DRAM guys better play along since AMD cannot make enough chips to make up for the SDRAM sales to be displaced by RDRAM systems. Interesting, but this "commitment" coincides with the poorest execution we have seen in Intel's history. Would it be far fetched to assume that the intensifying of this commitment will result in even poorer execution in the future? Joe

To: The Prophet who wrote (42006)	5/11/2000 5:35:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; Re DRAM guys playing along with Intel and RDRAM... As I posted above, I don't think that the amount of RDRAM required is going to be terribly high, given that only 10 or 20% of the owners are going to ask for a replacement. Those who wait too long, or those who are unable to obtain a replacement because of the inadequate numbers of RDRAM chips, will end up getting their motherboard back with a replaced MTH chip, no doubt. But I could be wrong about the amount of customer returns, especially if there is a massive story in the media. (This would really be bad for Intel, and would have repercussions for years, of course.) One factor is that there are a lot more SDRAM i820 boards out there than RDRAM i820 boards. But regardless, there is nothing the memory industry can do about it before the DDR debut, the lead times on DRAM are much too long. Any change they make between their RDRAM and SDRAM lines won't have an effect until well into summer, which happens to be exactly when the early DDR mass production is scheduled. They have to choose between SDRAM and RDRAM at the beginning of a wafer cycle. Thus the chips now in production were chosen without the knowledge that Intel would have a sudden need for RDRAM. Note NEC's statement that they had overestimated RDRAM requirements a little while ago. To the extent that SDRAM consumption is reduced, the DRAM makers are more likely to produce extra DDR chips, given that that an SDRAM wafer can go either way at the last few stages. Thus a true glut of SDRAM will also automatically increase the availability of DDR, which will be much appreciated this summer. The other effect is that Intel will have to choose between supplying p:$$ed off SDRAM customers with i820s, or instead reducing the supply of new RDRAM i820 boards to customers like Dell. There just isn't a big pile of RDRAM chips out there to solve this problem with. -- Carl