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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (24876)	5/11/2000 8:51:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Ian, I read some summaries and watched Morgan's interview. His view is very sanguine and he sated that some 24 new fabs are planned for 2000 and 2001 combined. He did not say how many of these are 300 mm. My problem with the 300 mm timing is that the wafer makers do not have the money to buy the capital equipment to make these wafers. Fundamentally, without having a ready supply of these wafers, the market will have difficulties launching. The wafer makers got burnt two years ago "tooling up" with the 300 mm and seeing very little of their experimental wafers finding buyers. Morgan's pronouncements reflects the current "singing in the street" mood in chipland, which is always loudest when the peak approaches. The fundamental fact remains that at the current order rate, the cap equip market is running at an annual rate of $30 B, meaning that industry total caps is well north of $43 Billions, too high in my opinion for their sales volume (which this year will reach some $200 Billions). Thus IMHTO, the FA and TA are not at odds, at least the way I read it. Zeev