Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (62)	5/11/2000 11:10:00 AM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

William i think your right however it looks like the semi's are at the top of the cycle and could consolidate for awhile Intc could come back to 98 or 95 so i'll be careful there.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (62)	5/11/2000 4:38:00 PM
From: Jeff Leader	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Supplies Down Since when? The ongoing process of feature-size shrinks results in constantly increasing supply, even when no new factories are being built. Prices up Again, since when? Prices are still down on the year, and MU's ASP for the current Q will probably be down from last Q. This could easily result in another earnings shortfall. The Street shrugged off one shortfall - would they be so generous a second time? Capacity constraints Samsung is preparing to bring new significant new capacity online within a few months. Capacity constraints on other products (CPUs, capacitors, etc) may be the gating item now, and could restrict the demand for DRAM. And with Al trying to slow the economy, the demand picture going forward is not clear. Low-cost leader An urban legend IMO. Samsung is at least on par, if not ahead of MU in terms of feature size. And Samsung's manufacturing yields are said to be excellent. What's more, Samsung is typically a year ahead of MU on the design side. This allows Samsung to make big profits on things like RDRAM and 256MB SDRAM (which they've had in production for over a year). The U.S. government has shielded MU from Korean competition by way of anti-dumping duties. But the WTO has already ruled against the U.S. in this dispute: Message 13500490