To: rampingup who wrote (19087 ) 5/11/2000 11:03:00 AM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 28311
ramping up... I'll offer my opinion (caveat emptor) on where we're at. GNET is having a very nice rally today, but the real test will be at $45-48 which was previous strong support but has now become major resistance (broken support levels become resistance). I still think the Nasdaq will have a retest of the lows at 3,200 from a few weeks ago, and failing to hold that, is eventually headed towards 2,900 (where we can all put in our Steely Dan CDs and play "Do It Again" as the Nasdaq bounces off that support level... :0) The run-up in the Naz was an anomaly due to added liquidity the Fed added just before Y2K. AG has been spending most of this spring removing that liquidity and raising rates, but will eventually have to take his foot off the monetary brakes out of fear of stalling the economic "engine". He surely does not want to be responsible to collapsing the economy, the market, or plunging the rest of the world into depression. Also, the Euro is under extreme pressure, hiking their inflation fears there (oil being denominated in US dollars), and every interest rate hike makes US denominated assets that much more attractive. I'm sure AG is under extreme pressure from the ECB not to hike .50 basis points as that would disadvantage Euro assets to an even greater extent and force the ECB to hike rates in a weak economy in order to defend their currency. In sum, no matter how good a company GNET is, I think we'll see $30 before we see $60. Investors want a nice healthy risk premium before they commit their cash. And since many of those investors are institutions, that is even more the case, imo. Right now, GNET just has no technical support level and will suffer should the rest of the Naz finally collapse in a panic sell-off (have your trading trigger finger ready for such an event). Btw, I currently have an order in for GNET shares at a price I won't public disclose. But suffice it to say it's around the support level I'm discussing. Regards, Ron