Ola DD. Haven't checked this out yet. From today's Barrons:
<check out whether you've chosen an optimal set of funds by running American Century Investments' Fund Advisor, available at www.americancentury.com. You'll have to sign up for a free login, called a OnePIN, on the site, and take some time entering your existing investments. Once you're done, you'll be told which funds fit your objectives and which don't.
I took about 45 minutes setting goals, specifying acceptable levels of risk, and entering existing investments. One noteworthy feature is that the Fund Advisor isn't just retirement-oriented; you tell it you're saving for college, or for an airplane (my favorite goal). Fund Advisor pointed out the overlap in the investments I entered, and recommended some changes, several of which were outside the American Century family of funds. The fund universe from which Fund Advisor makes its recommendations includes about 4,500 no-load funds. American Century plans to have future versions link to trading screens in its online brokerage.>
I also would like to share the following well writen article on today's market issues:
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Retail Sales Report Very Important
Producer Price Index Also Important - But
Next Tuesday's Releases Will Drive The Decision
*March Wholesale Sales rose +1.0% - Inventories rose +.7%
Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.28 months
*Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Shipments Index
Fell six points - Orders rose eight - A Wash
*Jobless Claims fell -7,000 to 297,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +7,750 to 285,250
*April Retail Sales fell -2.% - Ex- Autos Flat - Good
But, March Revised Higher - See Below
*Business Inventories for March rose +.3% - Sales +1.2%
*April Producer Price Index fell -.3% - Core Rate, Ex
Food and Energy, rose +.1%
Last week we had felt somewhat alone in our view that
it was still too early to predict a one half point
increase in rates at Tuesday's meeting. Now, one
very important report, and one not bad report later,
we have more company. However, it is still too close
to call because Tuesday morning, before the meeting
starts, a lot of relevant information will be available.
But, based upon what we know now, our view is still that
a one quarter point increase is still the best bet.
We arrive at this view by simply focusing on what the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has told us is
important to them - the labor markets and consumer
spending, as longer term subscribers know. Last week
we pointed out that while the official, and very
important Labor Department Report for April was strong,
the more recent weekly jobless claims data softened.
Last week's claims data still support this view. In
other words, the labor market is not getting any tighter,
and could, just could, be easing a tad.
The really good news, though, was for the other important
concern of the FOMC - retail sales. The headline report
noted a decline, but even the less volatile index after
removing auto sales was flat. This report should get
their attention even if the slowdown was somewhat
overstated by upward revisions to March data.
What is important is that sales of durables were off quite
sharply, and the purchase of items expected to last for
more than a year obviously requires more confidence about
the future than items purchased for immediate consumption.
As we all know, April was a difficult month for the stock
market, and as a research paper from the FRB indicates,
the wealth effect, to the extent there is one, is usually
quite immediate as opposed to being lagged.
Again, as longer term readers know, I am not a big believer
in the "wealth effect", which implies a close positive
correlation between changes in asset values and spending
patterns - but many, if not most, voting members of the FOMC
do believe. So, they should take note that the downwardly
volatile stock market may have impacted spending, and in
their view, would be likely to continue to do so near term.
One other point worth mentioning in this regard is that
year-over-year the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500,
is easily within a range that the FOMC would find non-
inflationary in terms of the wealth effect. And, dare I
hasten to point out, it is down since year end. In other
words, there should no longer be a positive wealth effect,
even from the viewpoint of the FOMC.
In addition, our oft repeated view has been that the shift
to electronic filing, and hence more rapid tax refunds,
has distorted the data. Early in the year retail sales
may have been overstated, and now, on a reported basis,
they may get understated. But for the FOMC the headlines
will drive their decision, as it would be very difficult
politically to get much more aggressive on rates in the
face of a reported slowing in retail sales.
So, in our view, Tuesday's reports are all important.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are not
normally attention grabbers, so they won't have much
influence. Housing Starts / Permits, though is very
important, and our best guess is that it will slow,
perhaps quite a bit, both because of higher rates, and
because of problems coping with weather induced seasonal
shifts. If it stays strong, one half point is likely.
And, of course, if the Consumer Price Index is strong,
one half point is a virtual given. So, it is a very close
call - one quarter point continuing the trend, or one
half point to send a message. At times like this, items
at the margin come into play - say foreign exchange and the
weak Euro, and political considerations in an election year.
So, if we had to put odds on it, we'd go with 60% for one
quarter point, 40% for one half. But, the important point
for the markets, over the slightly longer term than next week,
is not the actual outcome of the vote, but whether or not
the FRB can engineer a soft landing.
In such a situation, the best advice is to stay focused on
the macro picture even as the markets remain volatile !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday:
Tuesday: FOMC Meeting, Industrial Production /
Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts /
Permits, Consumer Price Index
Wednesday:
Thursday: Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes, Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Index
Friday: International Trade, Univ. of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Survey |
