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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Serendipity who wrote (12637)	5/12/2000 11:55:00 AM
From: Rocket Scientist	Respond to of 29986

Serendipity, Re: <<Globalstar has a well publicized plan... of getting to x million subscribers by year end 2002. I would love for someone on this thread to tell me how they are doing relative to that. There are many countries for which no Service Providers have been signed up (almost all of Asia for example; most of Africa). What percentage of the business plan target for 2002 comprises of countries that have not yet got an SP?>> Well, I think the "X" was about 3 million by y/e 2002; that would be consistent with the investor's brief of May99. In a 12/98 cc, BLS said they could achieve about 40% of their '02 targets from seven countries and provided the following sub forecasts for them: China, 250K Brazil, 225 Mexico, 200 Canada, 200 Russia, 200 Australia, 125 USA, 110 Total, about 1.3M; which would be consistent with a total world wide sub count of 3M. As for how they're doing against that plan... Well, of course we know they're several months late; but other than that, the countries above represent 16 of the 30 gateways that have known homes, and they are all in or on the verge of starting service. The other 14 GWs are in Latin America (4, excluding Brazil and Mexico), Europe (3), Middle East (3), Africa (2), Caribbean and Korea (1 each). On average, these are poorer markets than the seven countries, but should represent another 20%, say, of the '02 BP. That would leave 40% unaccounted for...missing regions are mainly India and SE Asia, and most of Africa. A big unknown is how many countries will license G* service without their own GWs? Georgia, Kazakhstan, other former SU states and Mongolia are all within range of firmly planned GWs...will G* be allowed to provide service there? Unknown, so far, though some maps imply Mongolia will be served. TESAM has had plans for a GW in Vietnam...will it be allowed to serve Cambodia, Thailand and other neighbors from it? no one knows.... It's reasonable to assume that GWs in the missing regions will find capital and SPs if G* demonstrates it's on a path to success....not, if not. The other factor to bear in mind is ACeS, which will provide G-like service from a GEO satellite regionally in the Phillipines and much of SE Asia later this year. How it performs, technically, and how it prices and markets its service will impact G entry into those regions.