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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (50522)	5/12/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George, You are predicting a drop to the 1350 area on the Nasdaq? tp

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (50522)	5/12/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

The economy will slow, the dollar will take a big hit, and stocks will drop considerably further before this bear is finished. One more stiff drop may bring this phase of the bear to a close, but the next phase -- to begin sometime between summer and the day after the elections -- probably will drop prices close to their 1998 lows. A few "opposite" random thoughts. The economy will be "slowed" by greenspan. The dollar will continue to be the benchmark as the "establishment" continues to purposely suppress gold. The sideline money will start to come back to the market after Greenspan shows life in the market continues, even with a .5% rise. The summer will be a point of consolidation in the market as the funds begin pouring money back in to the market. If you are in the right sectors like "energy" telecommunications and resources you will do very well. In a slower economy budget surpluses will vanish as politicians move to cut taxes. Those treasury buybacks that many on Wall Street see continuing for many years, likely will end in 2001 or 2002 at the latest. If the economy begins to slow to quickly Greenspan will remove his bias to further interest rate hikes, ensuring an orderly growth for the year. Budget surpluses will continue to rise Given the extreme leverage in the US today, debt defaults and bankruptcies will skyrocket in a recessionary environment. In such a scenario financial stocks look especially risky here. Probably more risky than tech now. If a recessionarry environment arises from the Fed tightening Mr. Greenspan will be hung from a most delicate part of his body. The combination of a slowing economy and a weaker dollar could trigger an episode of 1970s style stagflation. Not as extreme as the 1970s, but a real problem nonetheless. That is the best possible environment for a major bull market in gold. true, but it won't happen the Chief