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To: Larry S. who wrote (23315)5/12/2000 2:01:00 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
Larry, Agree with your picks. For longer term investors T is compelling. The real story with T is cable and their growing internet related investments. I believe much of T's recent sell-off was the institiutions involved in an arbitrage play between the recent spin-off AWE-and them trying to support the price-especially Goldman Sachs. To raise the huge sums to support AWE after the ipo, they sold scads of T to raise that cash. Frankly, I did own AWE for a few days, but thinking through the "investment banking" issue, I dumped the AWE and bought into T. Up to only a few hundred shares now, and I hope the weakness continues so I can raise additional cash to fund T. For me its been a long long time that I found anything really compelling. Thats the problem having a background in financial analysis and banking. Recently, best to have a background in psychology concentrating in herd mentality and grand delusion. Ed



To: Larry S. who wrote (23315)5/12/2000 2:46:00 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr  Respond to of 53068
 
Larry, Merrill Lynch Just Released Interday Call on T:
Would love to post it, but could lose account priv. Will Summarize for all:

Just came out of Analyst meeting with CEO and CFO
Maintain Buy rating
End of year, sum of parts value just below $80/shr
They reinterate their $ 60 price objective

Thats the best I could do- I guess I should say support Merrill Lynch!



To: Larry S. who wrote (23315)5/12/2000 9:06:00 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53068
 
What's going on: -
Here's my take on what is going on.
1. The market, particularly the nas, techs, nets, bios, had an incredible run, + 100% in some cases from October 99 to early 2000. It is only natural that after such an accelerated move, that there be some retracement.
2. Many "old economy" stocks bascially did nothing for part of 1998, and all of 1999. These banks, oils, retail, telcos, manufacturing companies started attracting money as the sell off in the nets, techs, bios picked up speed in march, april,
3. Energy prices are proppeling inflation and is likely to continue to do so. Add this to an excess in liquidity in late 1999, due to Y2K (remember that phrase) which started to be withdrawn in early 2000. A vigilant Fed is raising rates to attempt to contain inflation. It is doing a good job and I think we are close to the end of the tightening phase.
4. The tried and true "buy on dips" has failed for the first time in quite a few years. While this has shaken many, it hasn't broken the spirit of this market. What has been broken is many day traders, brand new ones particularly, who discovered Mr Margin can be a real mean son of a b*tch.
So what's next?
I see a sloppy market for the next few months, no roaring back like we've seen in the past. We are definintely in a bear market right now, but bear markets have been compressed to a few days, weeks, months. So the worst is behind us. We have had great earnings from the tech bellweathers and tech will be the place to make money in the future, but in the short run, the value sector will be the better place for money than the techs. And techs that will win are the good ones. A lot of the huge PE, no revenue, no earnings, pie in the sky models will just disappear.
I think some of the food stocks, particularly BFO and NGH are very attractive, and are involved in takeover battles. JCP - JC Penney has no leadership and will be spinning off Eckerd drugs and selling some assets, plus buying back stock. PS, it has a 6% yield, which appears secure given that they just cut it.
T is a great value here, LMGa - Liberty Media, is a great collection of media assets and trading near its low. The drug and energy sectors seem like attractive areas for money. and small cap value funds too. jmho. larry