To: silversoldier a/k/a SI Sy who wrote (19149 ) 5/12/2000 4:18:00 PM From: tahoe_bound Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 28311
1/4 or 1/2 point? From "Kensey" at clearstation.com: any rally that is accompanied by decreasing volume is suspect. meaning, more money came out of the market on wednesday than has gone back in yesterday and today. this suggests bulls are not back in control despite big point gains in much of the tech sector. the scenario called for a good PPI number and a rally on that number. got that. but the volume component still lacking. while this was somewhat of a good thing yesterday, it is deemed less so today. why the volume slow down? appears that institutions are sitting on their hands until the Fed meeting is over and done with next week. likewise, it seems prudent to not get over weighted until that event happens and we see the reaction in the market. the scenario i am favoring here predicts that we get a 1/4 point increase due to the in line PPI and the better than expected retail sales figure. a one quarter point rally should result in a rally of significance. a half point increase may result in a relief rally but it is thought that this would be of a shorter duration. why? a quarter point increase means thatthe Fed is in preemptive mode. meaning, it sees the risk ofinflation but not the whites of it's eyes. a 1/2 point increase means that the Fed sees inflation in the economy right now and is reactively trying to quell it. a half point increase means that the Fed screwed up and is behind the curve. there is a big difference between preempting something that is not there and fighting off something that is there. If the Fed were to raise rates by 50 basis points, but maintain a tightening bias, investors could run scared. until it becomes clear whether the Fed is acting preemptively or reactively, big money will continue to sit on the sidelines. and i don't think it buys on the advent of a 1/2 point increase. note : this is a scenario and highly subject to change. at any rate, aggressive positioning ahead of the Fed meeting is ill advised. once the Fed outcome becomes clear, there will be time to act on that information. playing it this way : removing some of the short term action and holding the rest for now as i've said, the odds of a 1/4 point increase seem to be higher now than earlier in the week. and stocks picked up wednesday and thursday was done at favorable prices if a 1/4 point increase is what we get. i wouldn't expect the market tanks ahead of the Fed meeting. the good numbers diminish the odds of that outcome short term. unless some other unforseen event makes it's way into the market.