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Technology Stocks : F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: James Calladine who wrote (956)5/12/2000 4:30:00 PM
From: Temarken  Respond to of 1801
 
Just a correction.....CSCO reported 55 percent growth year over year not quarter over quarter.



To: James Calladine who wrote (956)5/12/2000 8:01:00 PM
From: gloff  Respond to of 1801
 
Earning 67C this fiscal year, F5 will show year over year growth of 263.33% vs. Cisco's estimated 37.38% growth--this with Cisco's "cooked" figures from the current quarter utilizing the ole "one time charges" ploy. Granted, F5 is not predicting it can sustain this high growth rate, but earning 18c in quarter for $32 per share makes F5 a better value in my book than a company earning a questionable 13c in quarter and costing $60 a share.
Or would it impress you that F5 is going from $27M in revenues last year to an estimated $120M this fiscal year?



To: James Calladine who wrote (956)5/12/2000 8:08:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann  Respond to of 1801
 
CSCO rev growths are 55% primarily through acquisitions. If we use Briefing.com's adjusted EPS after one time costs are deleted then CSCO numbers look like this.
EPS .038 to .021a to 0.24a to 0.25a to 0.14a Mar00
www2.briefing.com

Compare FFIV's numbers
EPS (0.10)a to 0.11 to 0.18 to 0.18 Mar00
www2.briefing.com

If one likes revenues then maybe CSCO is for that person. At least FFIV's EPS is in a direction that is upward over time.
Jack



To: James Calladine who wrote (956)5/12/2000 8:50:00 PM
From: Michael Kim  Respond to of 1801
 
Re: Insider selling. When insiders sell, esp. large quantities, it is an indication that they feel the stock is approaching a top. We all know that, and many companies and executives are also sensitive to sending out that signal. However, when anyone is faced with the potential of realizing a multi-million windfall, most people would take the money. In other words, what would you have done?

I'm not defending their actions, just trying to put myself in their shoes.



To: James Calladine who wrote (956)5/13/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1801
 
``Sales growth momentum and strong margins have enabled F5 to sustain profitability despite a continuing ramp-up in infrastructure to support our growth,'' added Mr. Hussey. ``We expect that F5 will deliver sequential quarterly sales growth in the low to mid teens, and continue to post profits and positive cash flow in the second half of fiscal 2000.''

If we accept that low teens is 13%, then compounded this works out to 63% or so annually.


Two points:

First, FFIV's guidance on sales growth has been very conservative. I believe their prior guidance on sequential quarterly sales growth was 10%. Since the most recent quarter's sales growth was more than twice that, many expected the company should predict sales growth considerably higher. They may well realize sales growth that is well above the estimates, which provides significant opportunity for upside surprises. More importantly, it means they are not very likely to miss their sales growth targets.

Second, you should not underestimate profits while continuing a substantial investment in infrastructure. A lot of that infrastructure spending will be going into sales which over time will substantially strengthen sales growth.

While F5's stock price may have gotten way ahead of itself (along with many other tech stocks), at current levels you aren't paying much for a profitable and rapidly growing company. Abundant disillusionment and pessimistic forecasts are already priced into the stock, so there is much more upside than downside potential from here.