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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (157127)	5/12/2000 4:40:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

GV - I agree. I have seen references to a "blowout" quarter - when DELL barely made the expectations they revised downward. I expected them to make 16 with a penny or two to spare. They made .16 but with nothing to spare. The references to "enterprise growth" which include laptops and workstations are just a silly attempt to make it look like DELL has shifted more of its business to enterprise. The reality is that they are still at about 17% enterprise - in other words, about 80% in the PC sector. This was a solid performance in trying times. The bounce to 50 is a surprise but probably deserved. Once people understand that the guidance has not changed from the lowered expectations presented at the beginning of the year, and that DELL still needs to do something to develop their enterprise business faster to make their numbers for the rest of the year, we will be lucky to hold 50. I don't mean to throw water on the party, but just looking at the numbers I see a solid but not outstanding quarter which met lowered expectations, and the same hard grind for the rest of the year. As a notion of investor confidence, June 55 calls never went above 3/8 and even 50s were about a buck.

To: GVTucker who wrote (157127)	5/12/2000 4:43:00 PM
From: dav	Respond to of 176387

Just as my prediction, see several upgrades today, my target for DELL this year IS : $95. eom

To: GVTucker who wrote (157127)	5/12/2000 4:56:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

GV I agree with Mr. Kumar, it was an exceptional quarter, but beyond $55 the valuation is too high, at least for the next few months. I wouldn't let expectations get too high what valuation tools are you utilizing to come to this conclusion? expectations for the stock haven't been high for over 15 months. in that time Dell's business has increased over 70%. from it's stock high 15 months ago (of $55) Dell's stock price has gone nowhere. at what point does your "valuation" model begin to factor the expected premium growth from Latin America (Americas), Asia, and increasing demand from Europe? don't you think that analysts, and Americans in particular, have little to no understanding of the booming PC business occuring in the Asias and South America? Most American investors couldn't tell you where Brazil is let alone how many people currently live there relative to demand potential. most analysts have consistently underestimated the PC growth south of our border as well as the growth in the Asias. instead they focused on Europe - overestimating growth there; then having to trim their estimates once the real numbers came public. what does this say about accurately estimating "corporate demand"? India has 3X the population of the U.S. yet only 7% of the PC base. the same goes for China. how do you estimate growth into these population settings? do you believe, as do many analysts, that the income base in India and China still can't support the purchase of a computer? i read two months ago that the average wage, plus tips, of the restaureur and hotelier in Beijing is equal to the the average wage of those in the same business in the U.S. China has more skyscrapers going up now than any country in the world. India's standard of living has doubled in the past three years. Mexico's as well. How do we factor in these demographic changes that are constraining the parts platform?