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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lost to Voodoo who wrote (2925)	5/12/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Copeland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Albedo, Best guide to the number of lurkers - # of people who bookmark this thread. You need to get that information from the SI gods.

To: Lost to Voodoo who wrote (2925)	5/15/2000 8:58:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

albedo, YES - electric utilities tend to be a safehaven in bear markets and have made money or either broken even in 5 of the last 11 bear market declines. This group has outperformed the S & P 500 in 10 of these 11 market environments going back to 1946(73 -74 Bear was the exception)by recording lower average % drop in each decline. Over the last week, the UTIL keeps flirting with new all time closing highs only to be turned back down. This is bullish since it gives the DOW a chance to get back within striking distance of reaching new highs which is still 900 DOW points away. The fact that UTIL is rising in the face of rising interest rates alone is a testament to its own strength. Other interest rate sensitive groups such as banks and financials like MER and AXP confirm UTIL bullishness. For me, it is easier to keep a pulse on the market with UTIL out front leading the advance rather than the DOW or TRAN. I reitterate I am looking for a UTIL advance to this UTIL 360 area so we have ways to go. I know that once UTIL peaks, the DOW will soon be not far behind registering new highs before the broad market turns. In 1987, UTIL peaked in Jan while the DOW and Tran did not peak until Aug- a full 7 months later. More often the DOW will peak a few weeks to months after UTIL registers its highs. For me the UTIL DOW inter-relationship to NDX et al is not a perfect harmony at all. More like the tango and cha cha going on in two different dance halls. The trick is to find the rhythm of each dance and try and tie it together. I wish I could share how I do this but I would only fall short of worthy explanation. The DOW is in much better position to register new highs now as it has consolidated its base for over 1 year and BKX 2 years whereas the NASDAQ via tech and DOT et al had a parabolic ride straight up from October 99 lows. NDX will have more zigzag advances that need continued consolidation whereas DOW has solid base to launch higher. I think the relationship is to find equities with superior relative strength in NDX, SOX stocks that still have that exceptional growth and visibility for next 2 to 3 quarters. Once COMP broadens out, you will be able to find beaten down B2B stocks for a play and stocks in the DSL market. In the meantime, banks like WFC, JPM look very good. There are some regional banks dirt cheap that are diamonds in rough that can be bought out in next 12 to 18 months like MI. Best Regards, J.T.